625
ACUS48 KWNS 010907
SWOD48
SPC AC 010906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0406 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thursday Central Plains and Lower/Middle MO Valley...
Guidance remains in relatively good agreement that a shortwave
trough, and strong jet in its base, will overspread the
north-central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest Thursday. Ahead
of this mid/upper-level trough, very favorable ingredients,
including ample instability and rather strong deep-layer shear for
the season, should set up across Missouri, southern Iowa, and
southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas. The potential impacts of
convection lingering from Wednesday night remain a key uncertainty
regionally regarding the north-northeast extent of the more
appreciable severe risk, but the aforementioned areas seemingly have
the highest severe potential.

...Day 5/Friday Midwest...
While modest predictability precludes a 15+ percent severe risk at
this juncture, it seems probable that severe potential will be
focused within a moist and unstable air mass near/ahead of an
east/southeastward-moving cold front. This may be most focused
across the Ohio Valley and other parts of the Midwest/Lake Erie
vicinity, with damaging winds expected to be the most common severe
hazard.

...Days 6-8 Saturday-Monday...
Predictability diminishes into this time frame, although corridors
of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally
spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley, and
probably parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States on Day
6/Saturday.

..Guyer.. 07/01/2024