300
ACUS48 KWNS 030840
SWOD48
SPC AC 030839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Mid-Atlantic...
For Saturday, severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the
Mid-Atlantic as the upper-level trough moves northeastward through
the northern portion of the region. A cold front/surface trough
pendant to the surface low in southeastern Canada will be the focus
for convection by the afternoon. Models differ in the
strength/position of the surface low as well as the degree of
destabilization due to cloud cover.

...Central/southern High Plains...
With the broad trough to the north, the surface boundary is expected
to generally stall within the southern Plains and arc northwest into
the central/southern High Plains vicinity. Northwest flow aloft, on
Saturday and becoming stronger on Sunday, will promote some
potential for severe thunderstorm development. Both the GFS and
ECMWF hint at possible MCS development both days, but differ fairly
substantially on the details. Sunday would appear to have greater
potential given that the upper trough will dig into the southern
High Plains.

...South Texas...
As TC Beryl continues north-northwestward, an increase in severe
weather potential may accompany its circulation as it eventually
impacts parts of South Texas. Per latest NHC forecasts, this could
occur as soon as this Sunday. However, uncertainty on the exact
positioning and strength of this activity is too high at this time
for highlights.

..Wendt.. 07/03/2024