878
ACUS48 KWNS 290841
SWOD48
SPC AC 290839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Zonal flow aloft is expected to persist into late next week across
the CONUS. The upper-level jet will be displaced northward to near
and along the Canadian border. As successive shortwave troughs move
through that zone of stronger flow, cooler/drier air will move
southward into much of the Plains and parts of the
Midwest/Northeast. By next weekend, there is some potential for some
upper-level flow amplification with a ridge developing in the West
and shortwave troughs moving into the eastern third of the CONUS.
However, models remain rather divergent in their exact depiction of
this evolution (the ECMWF deterministic/ensemble is more amplified
than its GFS counterparts). Further increasing uncertainty, the
degree of moisture return ahead of any potential shortwave trough is
questionable given the expected frontal progression to along/near
the Gulf Coast.

..Wendt.. 09/29/2024