Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
096 ACUS48 KWNS 120900 SWOD48 SPC AC 120858 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... A mid-level ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward from the central and northern Plains on Wednesday to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Friday. During this time, a trough is forecast to move eastward across the western half of the nation. Ahead of the trough on Wednesday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear most likely to develop from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains. An isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the axis of instability Wednesday afternoon and evening. The instability axis is forecast to shift eastward into the central and northern Plains on Thursday, and into the Upper Midwest on Friday. An isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the instability axis on both Thursday and Friday afternoon/evening. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... Low-level moisture advection is forecast to increase markedly on Saturday as the trough moves into the Great Plains. By afternoon, an axis of moderate instability could be in place from the southern Plains into the Ozarks, with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms may develop along and near this axis of instability Saturday afternoon and evening. A severe threat will be possible from Saturday into Saturday night as the trough moves across the central U.S. A severe potential will also be possible on Sunday, with the system forecast to move across the Mississippi Valley. Although there is model spread among the solutions, most have the trough moving into the Great Plains on Saturday, with a moist and unstable airmass located over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. This scenario seems plausible. However, the models do still have significant variance on the timing and strength of the mid-level system. For this reason, will not add a severe threat area at this time. ..Broyles.. 10/12/2025