641
ACUS48 KWNS 090947
SWOD48
SPC AC 090945

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Guidance agreement has increased with regard to poor-quality
moisture return ahead of an upper trough ejecting from the West into
the central states on D4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday. A preceding surface
ridge into the Gulf Coast region appears likely to inhibit
appreciable poleward advection of Gulf moisture through D5. While
differences remain in the evolution of the upper trough, guidance
has markedly shifted north with cyclogenesis centered on the
northern Great Plains. This setup appears unlikely to support an
organized severe threat.

Late week, the next broad upper trough has above-average agreement
in reaching the West Coast. Guidance indicates potentially greater
low-level moisture return from the western Gulf into the southern
Great Plains. This suggests at least a low-probability severe threat
may occur next weekend, as indicated by both SPC and NSSL GEFS-based
ML guidance, which appears supported by the 00Z ECMWF ensemble mean.
Predictability is low with the evolution of embedded shortwave
impulse within this large-scale trough.

..Grams.. 11/09/2024