810
ACUS48 KWNS 061001
SWOD48
SPC AC 060959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread
concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern
across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of
next week.  Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly
progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the
period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less
sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the
northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into
early next week.  However, it still appears that associated frontal
wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts
offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk
for severe storms across the Southeast.

Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it
appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the
southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis
to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday.  This may quickly
be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more
prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday.  However, in the
wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return
off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation,
and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal
with regard to subsequent inland moisture return.

At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize
to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night.
However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time.

..Kerr.. 03/06/2025