


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
837 ACUS48 KWNS 110848 SWOD48 SPC AC 110846 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ....Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... On Tuesday and Wednesday, a mid-level low is forecast to move northeastward across the Intermountain West, as an associated jet streak translates across the Four Corners region. Thunderstorms will be possible well to the east of the system, along and near an axis of instability in the southern Rockies Tuesday afternoon and evening, where a marginal severe threat could develop. Moisture advection is forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday across the central and northern Plains, where a pocket of moderate instability could develop by Wednesday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening, near and to the east of the exit region of the mid-level jet. An isolated severe threat could materialize in areas where instability becomes the strongest. On Wednesday, a secondary trough is forecast to move into the Rockies, as southwest mid-level flow remains in place over the Great Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to develop within this southwest flow Thursday afternoon and evening over parts Nebraska and the Dakotas, where a marginal severe threat will be possible. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... The large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to move over the Rockies on Friday, as a ridge moves eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms will be possible Friday into Friday night between these two features, along and ahead of a cold front from the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central Plains. Convective coverage is expected to expand on Saturday across the Mississippi Valley, as the exit region of a large-scale mid-level jet moves across the region. A severe threat will be possible along a corridor of maximized low-level moisture and instability from the Ozarks northward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. Concerning the potential for a severe weather event on Saturday, uncertainty is substantial mainly due to the extended range and wide variance among the model solutions. ..Broyles.. 10/11/2025