Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
087 ACUS48 KWNS 260849 SWOD48 SPC AC 260848 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast... Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern Ontario. Another focused zone of greater coverage of severe storms will be across parts of West Texas where multiple rounds of storm are anticipated. The first chance of storms will be during the afternoon as the front continues to move south across Oklahoma and perhaps into North Texas. An additional round of storms will be possible across parts of West Texas as the low-level jet strengthens Tuesday night in the presence of strong instability and shear. ...Day 5/Wednesday - North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Ongoing Day 4 convection may have some impact on the exact location of the severe weather threat on Tuesday. However, regardless of Day 4 convective evolution, there will likely be a region with a more focused severe weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday where moderate to strong instability exists ahead of strengthening mid-level flow and a mid-level trough which will move across the southern Plains. 15% probabilities have been added for Day 5 from North Texas to the ArkLaTex where this location of greatest severe weather threat appears most likely at this time. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2025