003
ACUS48 KWNS 150940
SWOD48
SPC AC 150938

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to move quickly
northeastward across the southern Plains on Monday. A cluster of
strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing at the
start of the period over north-central Texas and southern Oklahoma.
A few severe wind gusts will be possible in this area Monday
morning. Thunderstorm development may continue ahead of the trough
during the day from east Texas and the Sabine River Valley northward
into eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, the Ozarks and lower to mid
Missouri Valley. An isolated potential for severe gusts will be
possible but instability is expected to remain minimal.

On Tuesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the
southern Plains, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. A cold front is forecast to move eastward
into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorm
development will be possible during the day along and ahead of the
front. Any severe threat ahead of the front is expected to be
isolated due to limited instability.

On Wednesday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Ohio
Valley, as a cold front advances eastward toward the southern
Atlantic Seaboard. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms
would be ahead of the front in the Carolinas, and across parts of
Florida.

...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
The upper-level low is forecast to move eastward from the central
Appalachians on Thursday to the western Atlantic on Friday. The
airmass across the continental U.S. is expected to be relatively dry
making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development across
most of the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 11/15/2024