153
ACUS48 KWNS 281000
SWOD48
SPC AC 280958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance suggests that an initially zonal, intense
mid/upper jet across the western into central mid-latitude Pacific
may undergo considerable amplification into and through this period.
It remains a bit unclear how emerging waves will impact the
downstream pattern by the middle to latter portion of next week.

However, it still appears that one significant preceding short wave
trough, migrating inland of the Pacific coast by early Monday, will
progress into and across the southern Rockies, before accelerating
east-northeastward through mid week.  And guidance remains
suggestive that this will be accompanied by strong surface
cyclogenesis, perhaps most notably across portions of the east
central Great Plains toward the lower Great Lakes region late
Tuesday through Tuesday night.  This may include an evolving warm
sector with intensifying low-level and deep-layer shear (in the
presence of southerly to southwesterly flow strengthening to 50-100
kt in the 850 to 500 mb layer), coincident with an influx of
moistening and destabilizing boundary-layer air off the northwestern
Gulf.

Spread typical at this extended time frame (day 5) lingers among the
various model output concerning the sub-synoptic, and even synoptic,
details across the southeastern Great Plains through Ohio Valley and
Southeast, which may considerably impact the severe weather risk
area and potential.  However, the medium-range guidance depicts an
environment at least conditionally supportive of an organized severe
weather event, including potential for a few strong tornadoes and
damaging straight line winds.

It is possible, but perhaps a bit more uncertain, that this could
continue across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard
on Wednesday.

..Kerr.. 02/28/2025