837
ACUS48 KWNS 070949
SWOD48
SPC AC 070947

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic
flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next
week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from
the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the
week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week.
Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high,
however.

...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...
Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through
Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the
GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the
shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is
out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more
progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and
magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement
of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints
currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this
Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some
increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough
approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the
greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday
depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence
remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will
continue to be monitored.

By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another
western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal
intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt
on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty
is too high for highlights.

..Wendt.. 02/07/2025