202
FNUS28 KWNS 072125
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited to the southern
California coast through the ended period, especially towards the
start of the period (D3/Thursday), though fire concerns may
re-emerge by the early to middle of next week. Elsewhere across the
country, a combination of snow cover, precipitation chances, and
cold temperatures through the next week should limit additional fire
weather concerns.

...D3/Thursday and D7/Tue - southern CA coast...
The ongoing offshore flow event along the southern CA coast is
expected to be waning by early D3/Thursday as upper-level winds
begin to subside, though some areas may continue to see elevated
fire weather conditions. Recent medium and long-range guidance
continue to suggest a resurgence of mid-level winds is possible by
late afternoon as a shortwave trough (currently approaching the apex
of a highly amplified upper ridged over the West Coast/western
Canada) ejects into the Intermountain West through the day. This
will result in a period of strengthening offshore winds, likely back
up to critical thresholds within the lee of the coastal terrain.
Given the prolonged nature of the current offshore flow event,
minimal moisture recovery is expected, so RH reductions back into
the teens appear likely and will support elevated to critical fire
weather conditions.

Recent runs of extended-range global ensembles have been trending
towards the development of another amplified upper trough over
southern CA into the lower CO River Valley by around D7/Tue. This
may establish another offshore flow regime along the southern CA
coast with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. Spread
among ensemble means and deterministic solutions remains high at
this range and limits confidence in details, but this time period
will continue to be monitored for additional fire weather concerns.

..Moore.. 01/07/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$