Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
717 FNUS28 KWNS 152152 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low accelerates northeastward from the Northern Plains into Ontario on Day 3/Friday. Breezy post frontal winds across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest accompanied by cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity should reduce fire weather concerns across the region. Ample low-level moisture ahead of a cold front should aid in keeping relative humidity above critical thresholds within a swath of elevated south/southwest winds from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes, suppressing overall fire danger. ...Day 4/Saturday... Increasing southwest mid-level flow in response to an incipient sub-tropical jet is expected across the Southwest on Day 4/Saturday. In addition, a developing surface low across the Southern Plains will support increased west/southwest surface winds south of an advancing cold front across eastern NM and western TX. This warrants a 40% probability of critical fire weather across portions of northwest TX, where fuels are more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Days 5-8/Sunday-Wednesday... An intensifying surface low and mid-level trough will translate east/northeast through the Great Lakes and Northeast early next week. A trailing cold front and attendant showers and thunderstorms should bring widespread rainfall to much of the eastern U.S. early next week, with the exception of the Carolinas/GA downstream of the Appalachians. Forecast guidance still indicates another robust mid-level trough moving into the Intermountain West early next week, which could bring dry and breezy conditions back into the southern High Plains on Day 6/Monday, and potentially very dry post frontal flow into central TX by Day 7/Tuesday. However, increasing model uncertainty precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 10/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$