627
FNUS28 KWNS 042151
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

...Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday...
A low-latitude midlevel trough will migrate slowly eastward across
the Southwest this weekend, remaining largely cut off from the
primary midlevel westerlies. Upstream surface high pressure over the
Intermountain West will encourage locally dry/breezy offshore flow
across southern CA through the weekend. While elevated fire-weather
conditions are possible, the potential for any more than locally
critical conditions appears too low for probabilities during this
timeframe.

On Day 5/Sunday, the midlevel trough will continue eastward across
the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and strong westerly
surface winds amid marginally low RH across the southern High
Plains. Critical fire-weather conditions are not currently expected.

...Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California...
A strong midlevel jet will advance southward over the West Coast,
yielding large-scale trough amplification over the western CONUS. At
the same time, a highly amplified midlevel ridge will build over the
eastern Pacific, supporting strengthening surface high pressure over
the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient
will likely strengthen to critical values across southern CA (around
-5 to -6 mb LAX-DAG gradient), generally peaking on Day 7/Tuesday
morning. This gradient and ample upper-level support will favor a
moderate offshore wind event and the potential for critical
fire-weather conditions. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in
place across the wind-prone areas of southern CA for both days, and
higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details
become clearer regarding overall timing of the event.

..Weinman.. 12/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$