390
FNUS28 KWNS 112112
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0410 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 191200Z

An active fire-weather pattern is expected across parts of the
southern and central Plains throughout the extended forecast period.
The day of greatest concern is Day 4/Friday, when high-end critical
to extremely critical conditions are probable.

...Day 3/Thursday - Southern and Central High Plains...
A highly amplified large-scale trough will move eastward from the
West Coast to the Rockies, resulting in a gradually deepening lee
trough over the central High Plains. In response, dry/windy
conditions will develop across the southern and central High Plains
during the afternoon. The best potential for critical conditions
will be over the central High Plains (closer to the deepening lee
trough) and farther south over eastern NM into west TX (where
downslope flow will be strongest in the base of the midlevel
trough). Between these two areas, precipitation that occurred three
days ago may mitigate the fire-weather risk to an extent, though
elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected.

...Day 4/Friday - Southern and Central Plains...
The aforementioned midlevel trough, accompanied by a 100+ kt
midlevel jet streak, will overspread the southern and central Plains
on Day 4/Friday. A related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen to
around 975 mb over the central Plains during the afternoon. South of
the surface cyclone, very strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow
will overlap a deep/dry boundary layer, which combined with a very
tight pressure gradient, will favor high-end critical to extremely
critical conditions. Currently, the best overlap of 30+ mph
sustained surface winds (with 60+ mph gusts) and warm/dry conditions
appears to be from portions of west-central TX northeastward into
parts of central OK. There is some question regarding fuel
receptiveness into central OK (given recent precipitation), though
current indications are that antecedent drying of fuels will still
support high-end fire potential.

...Days 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday...
On the backside of the midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet
streak will impinge on the southern Plains on Day 5/Saturday --
where a dry air mass will remain in place. This will support
critical fire-weather conditions across much of west and central TX.
Late in the extended forecast period, medium-range guidance depicts
another highly amplified midlevel trough moving across the West.
This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns across the southern
Plains once again, though differences in timing of the trough casts
too much uncertainty to introduce 70-percent probabilities at this
time.

..Weinman.. 03/11/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$