508
FNUS28 KWNS 272038
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

Precipitation chances across much of the CONUS will generally limit
fire weather concerns this weekend and through much of next week.
Areas of the Southwest and southern High Plains will remain
relatively dry, however. While model differences are evident, fire
weather concerns will likely be focused in the southern High Plains
vicinity over the next few days as a more progressive upper-level
pattern develops. Confidence in the details of this pattern are
moderately high through next Tuesday. Thereafter, confidence is
currently low.

...Southern High Plains...
Fire weather concerns will begin to increase this Saturday from
parts of New Mexico into western Texas as the initial shortwave
trough ejects into the region. Though winds will weaken some, fire
weather concerns will continue into Sunday in New Mexico to near the
Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau ahead of the southward advancing cold
front. Shortwave ridging will then develop over the region next
Monday. Winds are currently expected to be light enough that the
critical fire weather probability is low. Model differences in the
evolution of the upper-level pattern have continued over the past
several model cycles for Tuesday into late next week. The ECMWF
shows a more pronounced trough in the West whereas the GFS develops
a stronger trough later in the week. At least for Tuesday, both
model solutions would lead to an increase in fire weather concerns
as a lee trough develops. The degree of the fire weather threat will
hinge on the strength/evolution of the trough. After Tuesday,
predictability decreases markedly. Model trends will continue to be
monitored as some areas of critical fire weather potential could
emerge.

..Wendt.. 03/27/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$