505
FNUS28 KWNS 052142
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

...Synopsis...
As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place
over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow
impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off
the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day
5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern
Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada.
The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through
the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and
northern Great Plains.

...Day 4/Tuesday...
Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany
the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin.
Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of
this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across
the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there`s some disagreement
within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to
wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low
critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV
considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place.

In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great
Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible
near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief
mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low
should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to
introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this
time.

..Barnes.. 07/05/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$