200
FNUS28 KWNS 092109
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

Fire weather concerns through the extended period are expected to
remain confined to the southern California coast where an offshore
wind regime may become established early next week. Elsewhere across
the country, a combination of widespread precipitation, cold
temperatures, and unreceptive fuels should preclude additional fire
weather concerns.

...D5/Mon and D6/Tue - Southern California Coast...
Long-range deterministic guidance continues to show an amplifying
upper wave along the West Coast during the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday.
This wave will likely meander along/off the CA coast, possibly
becoming a cut off low by late Tuesday. As this occurs, moderate
(30-50 knot) easterly mid-level flow may overspread parts of the CA
coast while building surface high pressure across the northern Great
Basin promotes a strengthening offshore pressure gradient. This
synoptic regime depicted by most global guidance continues to
suggest that a critical fire weather pattern could develop along the
southern CA coast during the D5/Mon to D6/Tue period. However,
considerable run-to-run variability is noted in recent deterministic
models, and while these solutions fall within the envelope of their
respective ensemble families, this introduces uncertainty regarding
the overall intensity/duration of the potential offshore wind event.
As such, the 40% risk probabilities are maintained for this
forecast, though trends in guidance will continue to be monitored
given recent fire activity along the southern CA coast.

..Moore.. 01/09/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$