350
FNUS28 KWNS 182136
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

Active mid-level flow is expected over much of the US through the
extended forecast period. An upper trough will migrate across the
Plains and central US this weekend, as an area of low pressure and
cold front move east with it. As the cold front over the plains
stalls, the trailing portion will move westward, increasing RH and
overnight recoveries for several days across the Southwest and
southern High Plains. This will keep fire-weather conditions
relatively limited until the next larger trough begins to approach
midweek next week.

...Southern Great Basin into the Southwest...
Midweek next week, the cooler air mass behind the aforementioned
cold front will begin to modify as the next upper trough approaches
the West Coast. Increasingly strong southwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the drying and warming air mass, supporting some increase
in fire-weather potential. Model timing differences remain
substantial, though ensembles shows elevated conditions emerging by
D6/Thurs. More substantial fire-weather conditions are possible into
next weekend, as the main trough overspreads the southern Rockies
and High Plains.

...FL...
Very dry conditions are expected to persist across south FL through
the middle of next week as high pressure continues to intensify over
the eastern Atlantic this weekend. Relatively dry east/southeasterly
flow is expected along with very warm temperatures. The combination
of warm temperatures and modest moisture will support elevated
fire-weather conditions given dry fuels D3/Sunday. Further drying of
fuels is also expected over southern FL next week. Some risk for
locally elevated fire weather conditions remains possible for the
inland and western Peninsula much of next week.

...Central High Plains...
A period of westerly downslope flow is likely from this weekend into
early next week as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Downslope winds
may reach critical criteria behind the cold front, but substantial
uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface
temperatures. Additionally, widespread precipitation is expected
over the next several days, likely tempering fuels and supporting
only localized fire-weather concerns.

..Lyons.. 04/18/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$