146
FNUS28 KWNS 092115
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0412 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

A very active fire-weather pattern is expected across the southern
Plains throughout the extended forecast period, as a series of
robust midlevel shortwave troughs traverse the area amid
increasingly dry/receptive fuels. The greatest concern is on Day
6/Friday, when widespread critical conditions are expected across
the southern Plains, with the potential for high-end critical to
extremely critical conditions also evident.

...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains...
The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough and related strong
flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High
Plains during this time frame. This will yield dry/windy conditions
west of the dryline each afternoon, with critical conditions
expected.

...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains...
A highly amplified large-scale trough and attendant 100+ kt midlevel
jet streak will emerge over the southern Plains, while a surface
cyclone rapidly deepens over the central Plains. In response, very
strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deep/dry air mass
across the southern Plains, where fuels will be drying out leading
up to the event. This system will favor widespread critical to
extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Further northeastward
extensions of the 70-percent Critical probabilities may become
necessary in future outlooks as forecast confidence increases
regrading RH reductions.

Thereafter, a secondary low-latitude shortwave trough will likely
emerge over the southern High Plains on Day 7/Saturday, leading to
another day of critical conditions across the region.

..Weinman.. 03/09/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$