Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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962
FNUS28 KWNS 092115
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

Fire-weather concerns are generally limited through the remainder of
the week before increasing into this weekend and early next week.
Mid-level ridging over the western US will be in place as stronger
westerly flow remains displaced northward. Stronger mid-level flow,
and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to redevelop
over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin later this week
and into this weekend as a cold front moves out of southern Canada.
Gusty downslope winds are possible over parts of eastern Montana and
the western Dakotas D4/Saturday behind the advancing front. Exactly
how dry and how windy the post-frontal air mass is remains unclear,
but the increase in winds should support some fire-weather risk
within dry fuels.

The risk for elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions may
extended into parts of the Plains and the eastern Great Basin
through the weekend and into early next week. The original cold
front will weaken as a second stronger front moves quickly south.
Dry and windy conditions behind the front will overlap with very
receptive fuels. This could support another period of dry and windy
conditions across the Plains and Great Basin through early next
week. The most likely corridor for more widespread fire-weather
conditions appears to be across parts of the southern High Plains,
but forecast uncertainty of the air mass behind the front is high.

..Lyons.. 10/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$