012
FNUS28 KWNS 162035
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

Limited fire weather concerns are expected across the country
through this weekend and into next week. Recent U.S. Drought Monitor
analyses show worsening drought conditions across parts of the
southern Plains, lower and mid-MS River Valley, and the Southeast
where 7-day rainfall totals have been minimal. Despite the dry
conditions, the passage of a cold front over the weekend will be
accompanied by widespread thunderstorm/rain chances that should
negate any increase in winds and minimize broader fire weather
concerns. West of the Rockies, dry conditions are expected through
the middle of next week, but a combination of modest gradient winds
and unreceptive fuels should limit fire weather potential. The only
area of potential concern will likely be the central to southern
High Plains where rainfall chances will be limited through next week
and drying of fine fuels may be adequate for fire weather concerns.

...D3/Saturday and D5/Monday - Central/Southern High Plains...
Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions may emerge
across northwest TX into southwest OK on D3/Saturday as a surface
low deepens across the central southern Plains. While most guidance
hints at dry/windy conditions behind a sharpening dry line and ahead
of a southward-advancing cold front, considerable spread is noted
among deterministic solutions regarding the placement and intensity
of the surface low and the associated winds within the post-dryline
regime. Even ensemble solutions show low probabilities for
widespread critical conditions due to this uncertainty, but some
locations will likely see a few hours of elevated/critical fire
weather conditions prior to the cold frontal passage.

Fire weather concerns may re-emerge across portions of western TX
into the OK/TX Panhandles on D5/Monday as a dry return flow regime
becomes established across the region. An approaching upper wave
over the northern Rockies will promote cyclone development over the
northern/central Plains. As a result, southerly winds should
increase to 15-25 mph by late afternoon, but will yield minimal
moisture return owing to the preceding frontal passage this weekend.
As with D3/Sat, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show
considerable spread regarding the intensity of the surface low/lee
trough and coverage of 20+ mph winds, which precludes introducing
risk probabilities at this time. However, risk areas may be needed
as confidence increases in where fire weather concerns will likely
occur.

..Moore.. 10/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$