056
FNUS28 KWNS 272145
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into
early next week across portions of the southern High Plains.
Long-range guidance continues to show very good agreement in the
evolution of the upper-level regime through the extended period as a
series of shortwave troughs migrate across the Southwest into the
southern Plains and OH Valley beginning this weekend and into the
middle of the upcoming work week. Persistent dry conditions across
AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of
receptive fuels with most locations now reporting ERCs near or above
the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture below 10%. This fuel
environment will support fire spread as surface winds increase with
the passage of these upper disturbances.

...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - Southwest/Southern High Plains...
The first of two waves is currently off the CA coast and is expected
to move into the lower CO River Valley over the next 72 hours. As
this occurs, surface pressure falls across the Four Corners region
will promote a widespread swath of 15-25 mph winds from southeast AZ
into NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as RH values
fall into the teens/low 20s, and critical conditions are possible
along the AZ/NM border based on windier/drier ensemble solutions. A
stronger wind signal is noted across the southern High Plains on
D4/Sunday as a lee cyclone deepens across the region. Post-dryline
winds will likely exceed 20 mph, though the coverage of the wind
swath remains uncertain due to spread in the exact location of the
surface low in deterministic/ensemble guidance. Additionally, some
solutions hint at scattered showers across the TX Panhandle into
western OK. A 70% risk area has been introduced to southeast NM/west
TX where confidence in critical conditions is highest, but critical
conditions are possible across the TX Panhandle if the low develops
on the northern end of the ensemble envelope across southeast
CO/southwest KS and precipitation amounts are minimal.

...D5/Mon to D6/Tue - Southwest and Southern High Plains...
A repeat of the Sat/Sun sequence is expected on Mon/Tue as a second,
more amplified, upper trough translates across the Southwest and
southern High Plains. The stronger kinematic fields associated with
the second wave will likely result in a more robust low-level mass
response as a surface low develops late Monday into Tuesday over the
High Plains. While critical wind speeds are possible both days, both
GEFS and ECENS guidance depicts the strongest signal on D6/Tuesday
across southeast NM into southwest TX. Some solutions, including the
12z ECMWF, which typically has a weak wind bias, show the potential
for a swath of 30 mph winds under the mid-level jet. While exact
details remain uncertain at this range, the overall signal has been
consistent enough through multiple model runs to support 70% risk
probabilities.

..Moore.. 02/27/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$