090
FNUS28 KWNS 072145
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

Zonal mid-level flow will span the central/southern CONUS into early
next week, and is poised to break down into a progressive upper
troughing pattern by the mid-week time-frame. As this occurs,
widespread surface high pressure will persist across the northern
CONUS, with multiple cold frontal intrusions likely across the
southern Plains. The most pronounced southern Plains cold frontal
intrusion is expected around Day 5 (Tuesday), with dry downslope
flow anticipated ahead of the cold front across southern New Mexico
into Far West Texas for the Days 4-6 (Monday-Wednesday) period.
Here, the best chance for any wildfire-spread potential will exist.

...Days 4-6 - Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Dry downslope flow is expected across southern and perhaps central
New Mexico into extreme western Texas Monday afternoon before the
approach of the aforementioned cold front. At least
Elevated-equivalent dry and windy conditions are expected, though
some guidance shows 25-40 percent minimum RH, while most other
medium range members shows RH dipping as low as 15 percent in spots.
Given moisture discrepancies and questionably receptive fuels,
Critical probabilities remain at 40 percent.

Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions are possible across
the same areas, as well as the Trans Pecos region Days 5-6 (Tuesday
into Wednesday). However, medium-range guidance differs on the
position of the cold front. The GFS brings the cold front to the
Trans Pecos, and the ECMWF keeps the cold front farther north into
western Texas, introducing uncertainty of the east-northeast extent
of meteorological surface conditions conducive to wildfire spread.
Medium-range guidance suggests that surface winds and RH by
Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon peak heating should reach Critical
thresholds. However, uncertainty remains in fuel receptiveness by
early next week, precluding higher Critical probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$