804
FNUS28 KWNS 092158
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 171200Z

An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and
build across much of the West by D3/Monday. An upper-level trough
will eject across the Pacific Northwest D4/Tuesday into
D5/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions.
Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona
late in the extended with lingering isolated dry thunderstorm
chances before a shift to more wetting rainfall potential.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along the fringes of the deeper
monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. PWs
will be around 0.75" with mean storm motion around 15-20 kts.
Soundings show inverted V profiles with very dry surface conditions.
Given the storm motion and dry low-level profiles, storms will
likely produce little wetting rainfall. A 10% area was added with
this outlook to cover this potential.

Thunderstorm potential may extend into portions of the next week,
with a gradual increase in moisture northward as the western high
shifts into the Four Corners region through the weekend. This may
lead to an increase in wetting rainfall, with less potential for dry
thunderstorms.

...Wind/RH...
Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week
(D4/Tuesday-D6/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and
northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly
flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists
among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude
of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at
this time.

..Thornton.. 08/09/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$