


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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468 FXUS65 KCYS 031150 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 550 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and daily chances for PM showers and thunderstorms will continue late this week and into the weekend. - Temperatures drop back down closer to near normal for Independence Day but afternoon showers or thunderstorms could impact festivities. - High pressure to the south could drive daily shower and thunderstorm chances in the long term while keeping us close to near seasonable for temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 345 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Current IR Satellite loop shows mostly clear skies across much of the area with remnant clouds and showers well north of the I-80 corridor early this morning. Further west, a band of showers is moving northeast across Utah with increasing moisture and dewpoints in the 50s. This is the leading edge of the next Pacific system which is forecast to lift northeast today. Models continue to show this Pacific trough moving into the Rocky Mountain area this afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms and widespread showers forecast to develop this afternoon. Subtropical moisture will push over the area from the southwest United States as PWATs increase over 1.00 to 1.50 inches. Can`t rule out some training heavy rain showers with this feature. WPC continues to indicate a marginal risk for excessive rainfall west of the I-25 corridor. Kept POP between 50 to 70 percent through the evening hours. Further east, lower confidence when these showers and thunderstorms will make it to the eastern high plains with most high res guidance holding off until late Thursday night and Friday morning. Getting some indication that nocturnal convection will initiate just before sunrise early Friday morning for areas along and east of the I-25 corridor. The most unstable airmass will be located in this area with a cap inversion suppressing convection early in the evening. However, the 700-500mb layer is expected to gradually cool as the trough axis lifts over the area...with ample elevated MUCAPE through the morning hours. Current run of the HRRR shows widespread showers and thunderstorms along and east of I-25 through early Friday afternoon. Models have trended even slower with the upper level trough axis and are not showing it exiting the area until later Friday afternoon. Another line of showers and thunderstorms may develop and push into the high plains Friday evening, disrupting July 4th festivities. It will be a little cooler on Friday, but daytime temperatures will be near normal for this time of the year and generally in the 80s. For Saturday, models now show a flattened ridge axis across the Intermountain West as another Pacific shortwave clips northern and central Wyoming. With low level convergence along the mountains due to westerly winds behind the shortwave, but upslope easterly winds ahead of it...and ample moisture across the area, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon. These thunderstorms may become strong or severe across western Nebraska with current MLCAPE between 1500 to 2500 j/kg and 0-6km shear of 30 to 40 knots. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Little change in the long term as a typical summer pattern sets up over the western United States. Will be monitoring the position and movement of a developing 595 dm to 600 dm upper level high across the southwest United States during this period. The position and movement of this high will greatly influence conditions here over Wyoming and western Nebraska. If the high is centered closer to the Four Corners region with a northward extending ridge axis, as the current 00z GFS indicates, then hotter temperatures and a lower chance for thunderstorms are expected. However, if this upper level high is further west across the Great Basin, like the 00z ECMWF shows, then cooler temperatures under northwest flow aloft is expected with a much better chance for showers and thunderstorms. Will also have to watch for shortwave energy ejecting eastward over the northern periphery of the upper level ridge, since these tend to produce strong and severe thunderstorms. Ensemble guidance favors a blend of these two extremes, so kept high temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s with a 20 to 40 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms each day. Not expecting this pattern to change too much through late next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 550 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Upper level ridge axis will continue to lift northeast into the Great Plains as a broad Pacific trough moves into Utah and western Colorado this morning. A round of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop west of the I-25 corridor Thursday afternoon through late Thursday evening with some heavy rainfall possible. HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail through 21z this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will develop and push northeast over central Wyoming, mainly impacting KLAR and KRWL initially this afternoon and this evening. A period of steady mod/heavy rainfall may impact these terminals between 00z to 06z Friday with MVFR conditions possible. Further east, models have trended later with precipitation development, so will hold off on mentioning shower and tstorm activity until after 12z Friday for western Nebraska. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...TJT/CG AVIATION...TJT