260
FXUS65 KCYS 110011
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
611 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the area today
  through early Sunday.

- A strong cold front will bring strong winds back to the wind
  prone areas Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Cloud cover and very weak scattered echoes are noted on
satellite and radar respectively this afternoon as a deep plume
of moisture moves up into our region. Thankfully, the bulk of
this moisture should provide cloud cover and areas of scattered
light to occasionally moderate rainfall as we lack the necessary
forcing and instability needed to turn this into a more
problematic rainfall event, with PWAT values reaching 200-300%
of normal. Therefore the majority of this activity will be
orographically induced, with most precipitation across our
higher terrain, though a few showers should be able to make
their way off into the high plains as well. Meanwhile the cloud
cover being produced by this moisture is helping to insulate our
region, keeping it from warming and also from cooling overnight
as well. This should lead to possibly a few seasonably high
overnight low temperatures as we move into the weekend.

An approaching trough will help to end the southwesterly flow
we`ve been experiencing and will also bring cooler temperatures
to the region, along with our first high wind event of the
season. For Saturday into Sunday, expect the high terrain
precipitation chances to continue, with winds gradually
building through the day. Temperatures will remain similar to
today thanks to the insulating effects of the widespread cloud
cover. Into Sunday morning and then during the day on Sunday,
the trough and cold front move into the region. This system
will sweep most of the moisture out and by Sunday evening rain
should be exiting the region. Meanwhile temperatures will cool
on the west side of the CWA, with near to below freezing lows
for Sunday morning. And finally the jet associated with this
system continues to increase our winds with westerly to
southwesterly gusty conditions causing our first high wind event
of the season, primarily impacting our wind prone regions
including portions of Albany County primarily, though Carbon and
Converse counties could also be impacted. Models have become
more consistent on 50-60 knot winds at 700mb, with some maxing
out around 70 knots, and in house guidance reaching a peak of
60% probability of high wind gusts (58+ mph). And finally Sunday
afternoon`s highs should only peak in the upper 40`s to upper
60`s depending on what side of the Laramie Range you lie on,
bringing a much cooler and fall-like day to the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

At the start of the long term, an upper level trough will slide
rapidly eastward and then shift to a more northeast track, just to
our north, through Monday morning. Behind this exiting system,
surface high pressure builds Sunday afternoon, this coupled with
drier air moving in, will result in clear skies late Sunday evening
into and through the overnight hours. So, by Monday morning, expect
a season ending freeze across most if not all the CWA. Many
locations will have sub-freezing temperatures, dipping down into the
lower to mid 20s west of I-25 and upper 20s to lower 30s east of the
corridor. For Cheyenne, 700MB temperatures look to be in the -3 to -
1 degree Celsius range, so at the surface we expect a low around 29
degrees Fahrenheit, maybe a bit lower in the colder spots around
town. Sorry for all you snow lovers, you`ll have to wait a bit
longer before we see any appreciable snow here in Cheyenne with none
expected through Monday morning. Upper level flow shifts to the
southwest Monday, this will usher in more moisture and increases the
threat of precipitation across our western forecast zones. The
pressure gradient will reverse and tighten up across the Laramie
Range through Monday morning into the afternoon hours, bringing
southerly winds that will gust into 35 to 40 mph range. A quick
reprieve Tuesday ahead of another stout upper level low that will be
moving into the Southwest, shifting flow aloft southerly which
brings a surge of moisture into our CWA, resulting in low-end PoPs
for the remainder of the week. Other than Monday morning, we will
see moderating temps, with highs topping out in the 60s and lows
dipping into the upper 30s to mid 40s, warmest across the Nebraska
Panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Mostly cloudy skies are expected overnight with a few stray showers
possible, mainly for terminals east of the Laramie Range. Low
stratus will likely also creep into the same areas, leading to
MVFR CIGs late tonight. Shower chances increase headed into
Saturday morning.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...SF