Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
097 FXUS65 KCYS 300821 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 221 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Prolonged dry conditions will raise fire weather concerns through Monday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect Monday from 11AM to 7PM MDT. - Warm, dry and breezy conditions expected each day of the week. Expect fire weather headlines on a daily basis through at least Friday. - Warning level winds possible Tuesday night to Wednesday morning for the Interstate 80 wind prone areas. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 220 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Surface low located near Minot North Dakota. Cold front with this low currently lays along a line from northwest South Dakota to Buffalo Wyoming to Cody Wyoming. Really dry air behind this front with Tds in eastern Montana in the upper teens. Getting some pretty high wind gusts post frontal as well with 36kts being reported from the Lewiston and Jordan Metars in Montana at 08Z. Forecast looks on track with the cold front moving into northern Converse and Niobrara Counties in the next hour or so. Then into the central part of the CWA by 12Z and through Cheyenne by 15Z. A much cooler day compared to Sunday with highs in the 60s and low 70s. Still...with that really dry air behind the front expected to move into the CWA...critical fire weather conditions are still going to occur. Upper shortwave tracks eastward into Minnesota tonight with the front moving eastward as well. Westerly winds return and begin to increase Tuesday morning. Went ahead with a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday. Later shifts will need to keep an eye on strong winds in the Interstate 80 wind prone areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the GFS showing 700mb winds up near 50kts. Craig to Casper 850/700mb height gradients up near 52/43 mtrs at 06Z Wednesday. Did increase winds at Arlington and over the I-80 Summit for that timeframe. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 220 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Prolonged warm and dry weather will continue for the long term forecast and once again advertising above average temperatures expected. Upper level pattern will see some breakdown to the blocking pattern that plagued the region days prior with shortwave disturbances passing overhead and propagating downstream, transitioning the flow towards a more zonal pattern towards the middle of the work week. While this will bring temperatures more in line with what would be expected during Fall, it will be relatively shortlived with a breakdown of the zonal flow as a new upper level ridge begins building from the Western Seaboard through to the Intermountain West as early as Late Thursday night and persisting through the weekend. As a result, likely to see the return of above average temperatures, with the strongest signals for well above average temperatures on Saturday where the NAEFS mean 700mb temperatures are in the climatological 90th percentile for the majority of areas across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. As been the trend over the last week, will need to continue blending in higher NBM percentiles to the current long term model blends to slowly increasing daytime highs, in addition to continue monitoring fire weather concerns with critical threshold minimum humidity values for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024 VFR conditions expected across area terminals through the forecast period. Gusty southerly winds continue late this evening across the Pine Ridge and near KCDR with gusts 25-35 kt. A cold front will sweep across the region early Monday morning switching winds to out of the north starting around 11z by KCDR and 13z near KCYS/KSNY. Gusty northerly winds will continue behind the frontal passage into Monday afternoon. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ418-421>423-425-427-428-433. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for WYZ419>423-425-427>429. NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for NEZ435>437. && $$ SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...MB