076
FXUS65 KCYS 061148
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
548 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather and above normal temperatures will occur through
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Today...With low amplitude ridging aloft and weaker low and mid
level gradients, winds will be considerable less than on Saturday.
700 mb temperatures near 9 Celsius yield maximum temperatures in the
lower to mid 70s. Continued dry with lack of low and mid level
moisture.

Tonight...A weak, low amplitude shortwave trough aloft moves
overhead, though with dry conditions due to minimal low and mid
level moisture. A little more mixing and a moderating airmass will
make for a more mild overnight compared to the previous night.

Monday...As the shortwave trough aloft moves into western Nebraska
and western Kansas, our flow aloft turns northwest, producing a
warming trend for locations east of I-25. Lack of low and mid level
moisture will continue the dry pattern.

Monday night...Another relatively mild night with decent low level
mixing due to winds, holding minimum temperatures in the upper 30s
to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

The models are in strong agreement with the upper level ridge
persisting through Friday. This will continue to favor above
normal temperatures and little or no precipitation. This upper
level ridge axis is expected to shift slowly east into the
Plains through the end of the week. This will result in
downsloping winds as the upper level flow turns more west-
southwest along with warmer temperatures. We will need to keep
an eye on the potential for records again towards the end of the
week. Not really expecting Red Flag criteria being met through
the week either, due to wind speeds remaining at or below 20 mph.
However, don`t be fooled, afternoon humidity levels will be
very low in the 10 to 20 percent range. The potential for rapid
fire spread is still very high which can get out of control very
quickly due to dry fuels.

Saturday and Saturday night still looks like a timeframe we may
see at least a 10 degree cool down. This is due to the models
and ensembles showing an 700-500mb open wave moving through
western Wyoming and Colorado. If this pans out, we may see a
slight chance of light rain in the mountains and possibly the
higher elevation plains above 6kft on Saturday into Saturday
night. Would certainly not get your hopes up as this upper level
ridge is trending to keeping it grip over the area with more
upper level ridging building into the area next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Ridging aloft will move over the terminals today, while another
weather disturbance moves across the area tonight, but with no
precipitation.

Mostly clear skies will prevail. Winds will gust to 22 knots at
Rawlins from 18Z to 01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Dry and mild conditions will prevail this week. Fortunately, fire
weather conditions will likely remain below critical wind thresholds
even though minimum afternoon relative humidities will generally
range from 10 to 20 percent each day.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN