936
FXUS65 KCYS 281137
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
437 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An arctic front moving across the area Friday night will bring
  much colder temperatures and light snowfall accumulations to
  the forecast area through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 304 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Active weather is expected over the next 36 hours as an arctic front
brings much colder temperatures as well as light snow accumulations
to portions of the CWA. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be
much warmer during the day, with 700 mb temperatures climbing to
about 0C. Highs across the CWA will range from the 40s to the 50s,
which is anywhere from seasonable to 10 degrees above average for
this time of year. Lift from the approaching front and increasing
mid-level moisture could lead to some light showers that develop
during the afternoon hours. Given the milder temperatures, both rain
and snow showers will be possible. Hi-Res guidance is also picking
up on a bit of instability later in the afternoon, mainly west of
the Laramie Range. As a result, these models do show the potential
for snow squalls out west. However, winds begin to weaken later in
the afternoon which will limit true squalls. Though, moderate to
heavy bursts of snow that reduce visibility cannot be ruled
out.

The arctic front will begin to push into the CWA from the north
later Friday evening. Along and behind the front, more widespread
precipitation is expected. Most precipitation will fall overnight,
leading to snowfall accumulations for portions of the forecast area.
Most models and ensembles are in very good agreement regarding
snowfall totals, giving confidence in the forecast. Outside of the
mountains, the highest totals will likely be along the Pine Ridge.
Winds will be northerly behind the front, leading to upslope flow
and orographic enhancement of snowfall totals along the Pine Ridge.
About 1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible along the Pine Ridge
and for cities along north facing slopes. Highest totals will likely
be in Chadron and the Pine Ridge in Dawes County. Models show higher
QPF values here, leading to snowfall totals of 2 to 4 inches. Given
the population center, holiday weekend and potential for blowing
snow, went ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Dawes
County from 8 PM Friday night until 11 AM Saturday morning. Held off
on expanding the Advisory to all the northern zones for now as the
progressive nature of this system lends itself to a short window of
snowfall. However, given the strong frontogenesis with this storm,
rather impressive snowfall rates will lead to quick accumulations
with moderate to heavy bursts of snow. Outside of the northern
zones, most other locations can expect anywhere from a dusting to an
inch of accumulation. Aside from the snow, overnight lows will
be quite cold behind the front. Lows in the teens and single
digits are expected, but strong winds behind the front will lead
to wind chills below zero.

By Saturday morning, most of the snow will have pushed eastward out
of the area. A few lingering light snow showers will still be
possible in the northern Nebraska panhandle, but this should taper
off by the afternoon. Unfortunately, even with the snow gone, the
cold temperatures will remain on Saturday. High temperatures will
only be in the teens and 20s. Clear skies in the eastern half of the
CWA Saturday night will lead to lows in the single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

An active upper level pattern is expected this
weekend and lasting through the work week. A train of troughs will
move through the Intermountain West to give renewing snow chances on
an almost daily basis. Saturday morning, a weak shortwave will be
pushing east into the Northern Plains tapering off the snowfall
throughout the morning. By Saturday afternoon all snowfall should be
ceased as dry air filters in to give us a temporary break. Sunday
morning another system will start pushing into the Intermountain
West to give snow chances to the higher elevations and mountainous
regions mainly in Carbon and Albany county. There`s some uncertainty
if snow will reach the lower elevations due to the layer of dry
indicated on the model soundings. However, some of ensemble members
from the Euro and GEFS still show some light accumulations occurring
overnight when temperatures will be colder and easier to saturate.
However, during this time the system will be continuing to dive
south into the four corners region taking majority of the moisture
with it. If snow were to occur the best locations look to be along
the I-80 corridor before midnight. Monday through Tuesday afternoon
a short lived ridge wobbles east from the West coast to set up a
high pressure system over the Intermountain West. This ridge will
allow some slightly warmer temperatures aloft to move over the
region for a slight temperature boost. However, starting Tuesday
afternoon another weak shortwave flattens the ridge to resume the
active pattern until the end of the week. With the exception of
Monday and Tuesday, temperatures look to remain in the 20`s during
the day and drop into the teens and single digits at night. For
Monday and Tuesday, temperatures look to be a little higher in the
30`s with some areas possibly reaching the 40`s by Tuesday with
overnight temperatures reaching the 20`s for most of the areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 436 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Scattered rain and snow showers are expected Friday afternoon.
Impacts will likely be minimal, but a snow shower moving over a
terminal will reduce VIS. Gusty westerly winds are also expected in
Wyoming. Winds will ease around sundown, but a strong cold front
will push down from the north during the evening hours. Look for an
abrupt flip to gusty northerly winds and increasing potential for
VIS and CIG reductions in snow showers late Friday evening.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
     Saturday for NEZ002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...SF