817
FNUS71 KCTP 061723
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Terrace Mountain Fire...PA DCNR Rothrock State Forest
National Weather Service State College PA
1223 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1300 EST on November 06.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...
Southwesterly wind at the surface with gusts up between 15-20mph
are possible for this afternoon. Skies will remain overcast, but
the chance to see rain today remains 30% or less. If rain does
occur it will be very light in nature, resulting in less than 0.1"
of precipitation. Tomorrow winds will shift to become more
westerlybehind the cold front.

The primary window for an elevated risk of wildfire spread would
most likely occur on Friday afternoon across the southeast half of
central PA given the ongoing dryness/drought, falling minRH
25-35%, and gusty winds 20-30 mph from the west.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers early
                    in the afternoon, then slight chance of showers
                    late in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 76.
Min Humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................35.

TIME (EST)          1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  95  95  92  90  88
Weather Cov.......  CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather Type......  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  75  75  75  74  72
RH................  65  65  67  67  71
20 FT Wind Dir....  SW  SW  W   W   SW
20 FT Wind Spd....  6   6   6   5   5
20 FT Wind Gust...  14  14  14  13  11
LVORI.............  1   1   3   3   3
ADI...............  35  35  35  35  35
Haines Index......  3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the evening.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 57.
Max Humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............7.
ADI.................3 to 5.

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  86  83  81  80  78  77  75  68  71  72  73  71
Weather Cov.......                      SCH SCH
Weather Type......                      RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  69  67  65  64  63  62  62  61  60  59  59  58
RH................  80  84  87  92  93  97  97  97  98  99  98  100
20 FT Wind Dir....  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  8   7   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
LVORI.............  4   5   6   6   6   8   6   8   8   9   8   9
ADI...............  5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
Haines Index......  3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.THURSDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 71.
Min Humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................12 to 43.

TIME (EST)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  68  67  70  68  66  65  63  61  54  47  40  33
Weather Cov.......          SCH SCH SCH
Weather Type......          RW  RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  58  57  58  62  65  67  69  71  69  68  66  62
RH................  98  98  96  90  75  65  57  51  51  51  52  58
20 FT Wind Dir....  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  2   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT Wind Gust...  6   6   7   10  10  11  12  12  13  13  13  12
LVORI.............  7   6   5   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  12  12  12  37  37  37  43  43  43  43  43  43
Haines Index......  3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...Bowen
Requested by...Eleanor Elliott
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2425939.0/CTP
.DELDT 11/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL elelliott@pa.gov