403
FXUS61 KCTP 092322
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
622 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
* Some much needed rainfall will arrive Sunday afternoon and
  continue into Sunday night before tapering to showers early
  Monday.
* After a relatively mild Monday, temperatures through the
  remainder of next week will be seasonably cool for November.
* Our next chance of (light) rain should arrive in the Wed
  night/Thurs timeframe.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Plentiful sunshine is expected this afternoon, as sfc high
pressure passes overhead. Temperatures will be seasonable, with
highs ranging from around 50 degrees across the northern tier
to the mid to upper 50s across the valleys of southern PA. It
will be noticeably less breezy than it was yesterday, with a
light northerly breeze of 5-10 mph is expected this afternoon.

Fair skies this evening will give way to gradually increasing
cloudiness overnight, as a frontal system approaches form the
Ohio Valley. It will be a chilly night across the east, while
the western highlands should be a bit milder than last night as
a light return southerly flow develops there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some much needed rainfall will overspread the region from west
to east on Sunday, associated with strong warm air advection
downstream of a stacked low pressure system tracking eastward
into the Great Lakes. A plume of +1 to +3SD pwats (1-1.2")
supports 90-100% PoPs Sunday evening into early Sunday night.

Went a bit below NBM max temps on Sunday, as the incoming
moisture will encounter an initially dry retreating airmass and
evap cooling should help to undercut NBM temp guidance.

The Laurel Highlands should receive the most rainfall, with the
western slopes possibly approaching an inch. Amounts will
decrease farther to the east, but everyone should see at least
0.25" to 0.50" of much-needed rainfall by Monday morning.

Lingering showers are expected across northern PA on Monday,
before a secondary, moisture-challenged cold front pushes
southeastward across the region Monday eve/night.

Expect seasonably chilly temperatures for Tuesday along with
decreasing cloudiness, with highs ranging form the mid 40s
north to the mid 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly clear skies and light winds will allow for cold
temperatures across central PA Wednesday morning, with lows in
the 20s expected. Mainly dry weather is expected during the day
on Wednesday, though cloud cover will begin to increase during
the late afternoon ahead of the next system that will impact the
area. Confidence is high that a frontal system will move through
in the Wednesday night/Thursday timeframe, but there is still
considerable spread in the models in regard to the timing of the
frontal passage. Regardless of the exact timing, there will be a
chance for rainfall across most of the region. Rainfall totals
will be light as the system will be lacking significant
moisture.

A few showers linger through the end of the week across the
northern and western mountains as cyclonic flow remains
overhead. Ensemble 850 mb temps in the 1-3 degree range suggest
that the airmass will generally be too warm to support any snow
mixing in with these showers. Upper level ridging briefly
builds into the area for Saturday allowing for a mainly dry day.
Most guidance shows rain chances returning for Sunday,
especially across western portions of central PA as warm
advection increases ahead of an upstream shortwave and a warm
front tracks into the region from the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Other than a few high clouds this evening, weather will remain
good for aviation. Winds much less gusty today, than on Friday
at this time.

VFR conditions will continue with high confidence into Sunday
morning. High clouds will begin to increase overnight ahead of
an approaching low pressure system and will gradually lower into
the morning though ceilings will remain VFR during the morning
hours.

Rain showers are expected to enter central Pennsylvania after
17Z Sunday overspreading the area from west-to-east. I did slow
down things a bit, as the low levels will be quite dry. Still I
would expect conditions to lower to MVFR and even IFR levels
during the afternoon hours, at least at BFD and JST, and most
likely at AOO and UNV too.

More information below.

Restrictions are likely to develop(>80% chance) at all sites
by early evening on Sunday, as the rain spreads eastward and
there is high confidence that IFR ceilings will occur at all
sites Sunday night into Monday morning. The threat for LLWS
continues to look marginal so it has been left out of the TAFs
for now.

Outlook...

Mon...Rain tapers to showers over western PA; MVFR most likely
at BFD and JST. Improving conditions elsewhere with wind gusts
20-25kt from 270 degrees.

Tue...VFR/no sig wx. Gusty winds decreasing.

Wed-Thu...Restrictions possible by Wednesday night with another
frontal system/rain/LLWS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low humidity is again expected today with no rise in fuel
moisture. The wind, however, has decreased already and will
continue to decrease through the day as high pressure moves over
the Commonwealth. No RFW is expected at this time per
coordination with fire partners yesterday. However, we`ll
continue on with another SPS highlighting the marginal
conditions.

Much needed rainfall of between 0.40" and 0.75" is expected
later Sunday and Sunday night as a frontal system moves through
the state from west to east.

After another dry period of 2+ days, light rain is expected
again mid-week. However, the rainfall totals Wed-Thurs look
to be only be 0.10" or so.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Evanego
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Evanego
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Evanego
LONG TERM...Bauco
AVIATION...Martin/Bauco
FIRE WEATHER...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Bowen