366
FXUS61 KCTP 040007
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
807 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front bisecting PA from Southwest to Northeast this
evening will sag slowly to the southeast, stalling out of just
south of the region later tonight and Friday. A wave on the
stalled front will lift up the Ohio Valley and across
Pennsylvania this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Sfc cold front was located along a line from Near KBGM to
KIPT, KUNV and KPIT at 23Z. Notable llvl neg Theta-E advection
will be occurring across northern PA via westerly flow behind
the cfront, while a distinct corridor of high PWAT air around
1.5 inches remains across the SE half of the CWA as the nose of
a mid level SWRLY jet max and increasing diffluence at upper
levels transports a few more rounds of light to briefly MDT rain
across the southern 2/3rds or so of the CWA through 06Z.

The cold front won`t quite make it to THV/LNS by midnight. But,
it should clear the rest of the area by then.

Additional rainfall overnight will range from less than 0.10 of
an inch across the North to between 0.25 and 0.50 over the
Southern third of the CWA.

Mins tonight s/b close to 40F north but remain in the m50s far
southeast tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The high pressure over central Canada and the Upper Great Lakes
will slide eastward and keep a drying nrly flow going until Fri
night when veers to the SE. The sfc front should be languishing
over MD-WV/nrn VA into Sat. Multiple waves of low
pressure/shortwave troughs will roll eastward along it, and give
us many chcs for rain/thunder. The first of which will be later
Fri night. Have ramped up PoPs thru the night to 100s for most
of the area by Sat AM. The SE flow will again bring plentiful
low clouds and areas of drizzle to the eastern cos.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Waves of low pressure riding east/northeast along the stalled
to lifting frontal boundary will result in periods of soaking
rainfall (with some embedded convective elements) this weekend.
Latest WPC/NBM QPF fcst projects the heaviest rain (0.50-1.50")
over the western and northern Alleghenies with <=0.50" across
the south central ridges into the lower Susquehanna Valley
(where it is needed the most).

There is a broad consensus among the medium range operational
and ensemble guidance that the primary cold front (and
associated band of rain) slides to the southeast of the area by
early Monday. Model data favors a period of dry weather during
the day on Monday with noticeably cooler max temps (~55F) over
the southern tier of CPA (-10 to -15 degrees cooler vs. Sunday).

The focus will shift to a cold upper trough digging through the
Great Lakes into the Northeast Monday night into Tuesday. This
feature should bring unseasonably cold temps (-15 to -25F below
the historical average) and unsettled wx with rain/snow showers
likely along with some potential for strong blustery wind gusts.
The colder cyclonic/NW flow should linger snow showers downwind
of Lake Erie over the Allegheny Plateau into Tuesday night and
possibly Wednesday morning. Temps should hit a nadir Tuesday
into Tuesday night.

There are some long range model signals that suggest upper
level troughing will reload (with potential for a closed low to
move deep into the southeast US) into the second half of next
week. This pattern would favor a continuation of temps below the
historical average for the second week of April. There may also
be an opportunity for frost/freeze conditions as the spring
growing season gets underway in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A couple of passing rain showers mainly in the northern and
southern tier airspace through the afternoon, but overall we
expect a lull in precip through 04/0000UTC. Flight cats have
improved to MVFR/VFR and expect these conditions to hold into
tonight. Wind gusts 20-30kt from 220-250 degrees are expected
through the afternoon with downsloping flow on the eastside of
the Allegheny Front favoring VFR cigs.

Another round of rain with some potential for embedded
thunderstorm clusters is forecast later tonight into early
Friday morning primarily focused over the southern 2/3 of the
central PA airspace.

Outlook...

Thu...MVFR poss in widespread rain showers. TSRA poss, mainly S.
CFROPA aftn/eve.

Fri...MVFR cigs and visby expected, mainly S.

Sat-Sun...Widespread showers; impacts likely.

Sun...Lingering rain/snow showers; restrictions poss especially
N/W.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen