467
FXUS61 KCTP 300812
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
412 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will drift slowly east from the Ohio
Valley, pushing east of the area late Tuesday. A cold front will
push through on Wednesday and lead to drier and sunnier
conditions for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Per latest water vapor loop, the upper low is somewhere over WV
this morning. An axis of lowered heights extends ENE and over
the CWA. Bands of rain only slightly heavier than drizzle
continue to roll repeatedly over the south and creep up to I-80
at times as they dissipate. The llvl wind flow is slightly north
of east over NErn PA, and drier air is starting to advect in
from NY/New England. While it is not a dramatic change, there
should be just enough of a decrease in deep-layer moisture to
allow breaks of the clouds over the far N and far E parts of the
CWA this aftn. That could help temps rise a couple more degs
there today and the last few.

The upper low will fill slightly and slip eastward today. The
focus of the uplift and rainfall will be over the SW half of the
CWA. We`ll continue the high-PoP forecast for the SW and lower
values over the far N and E, shrinking (compressing?) them
through the day to the SW. QPF still looks minimal outside
0.5-1.00" in the Laurels, along the MD border. That will not be
near enough to create any flooding. Area creek and river gauges
have barely ticked up from this prolonged rain. It is just good
stuff at this point after such a dry summer down in the Laurels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The center of the upper low will be over our southern tier or
just to the south of PA Tuesday morning. overnight lows will
again be only a few degs off the maxes of the previous day. But,
the dewpoints will be lowering by a couple of degs. As the
moisture feed slowly gets choked off by a New England sfc high
poking into the CWA, the rain will start to dissipate on
Tuesday, gradually ending over the south-central mountains last
of all. The cloud cover is expected to remain at 100pct for the
period for the SW third of the CWA. Thus, the max temps will
stay down in the u50s and l60s there. Total clearing is not
expected for the NE, but it might just become only fair weather
cu in the aftn. Guidance brings cooler 8H temps to the N/E, and
will probably keep it 1-3F cooler than Mon there.

A cold front devoid of all but Great Lakes moisture will
approach from the west, but should not arrive until Wed AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will traverse the region Wednesday. A few showers
may accompany this feature, but unimpressive pwats and the
strongest forcing passing north of the state argue for minimal
rainfall amounts at best. Expect brightening skies from west to
east as the front passes and a drier northwest flow arrives.

Fair and warm weather looks likely Thursday, as upper level
ridging builds over PA, then a Friday night cold front passage
may be accompanied by a few showers. Medium range guidance
supports fair and seasonable weather next weekend, as high
pressure builds across the state. The next chance of showers
will come Sunday night with the approach of another cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Poor flying conditions will persist across Central PA overnight
into this morning as low clouds, light rain/drizzle and fog
keep predominantly IFR/LIFR conditions entrenched across the
region.

Expect some modest improvement to MVFR conditions for all but
the far southwestern airfields (JST/AOO) by Monday afternoon.
Monday evening will bring a return toward IFR conditions for
much of the Alleghenies.

Outlook...

Tue...Light rain/low cigs likely, especially across the
southwest.

Wed...AM rain/low cigs possible, then PM improvement.

Thu-Fri...Drier weather, with primarily VFR conds expected
outside of patchy morning valley fog.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Guseman/Evanego