249
FXUS61 KCTP 060058
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
858 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* High pressure over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S.
  will maintain dry weather and seasonable temperatures through
  the weekend.
* Wildfire smoke from Canada will continue to bring hazy skies
  and some air quality concerns this week.
* Humidity will slowly increase into next week with hot and
  muggy conditions returning to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Wildfire smoke aloft kept the sky looking quite hazy for the
most of the day today and visibility dropped in the 3 to 6 mile
range at times. The HRRR near- surface smoke product suggests
that similar smoke concentrations will stick around through much
of the night and may continue to impact visibility into
Wednesday.

There were a few sprinkles in western PA today, but no
significant accumulation was observed. With the loss of daytime
heating, shower activity has waned and a dry night is expected.
High clouds will continue to swirl in from the south overnight,
with increasing cloud cover likely helping limit fog potential
late tonight into early Wednesday. Low temperatures will be in
the mid 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure remains in control for Wednesday, but some
weak troughing aloft will support a bit more cloud cover and
perhaps an isolated shower or two. Some CAMs show isolated
showers developing on the higher terrain during the afternoon,
but model soundings show an unfavorable thermodynamic
environment with MUCAPE less than 300 J/kg and some CIN present.
Will keep PoPs below 15 percent at this point for Wednesday
afternoon, but a sprinkle or two cannot be ruled out. Thanks to
that increase in cloud cover, highs on Wednesday will be a bit
cooler compared to Tuesday, generally within a few degrees of
80F.

Smoke from Canada will still be around on Wednesday, though the
highest concentrations will shift a bit more northeast. The
Department of Environmental Protection has issued another Air
Quality Alert for Wednesday due to an increase in fine
particulate matter from the aforementioned wildfire smoke. Smoke
could continue to bring reduced visibility at times on
Wednesday, especially across northeast PA.

By Wednesday evening, the high clouds associated with that upper
troughing will move east of the area, giving way to clear skies.
Calm winds + clear skies + moist southeast flow will likely lead
to more fog formation and perhaps some low clouds by daybreak
Thursday. Whereas fog was mainly confined to the deepest river
valleys in north central PA over the weekend, this looks to be a
more widespread event covering much of the forecast area. Lows
by Thursday morning will be in the 50s to low 60s - a downward
trend of 2 to 5 degrees compared to Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Big sfc high in place over the NE U.S. and Canada will weaken a
little as the center drifts off the New England coast. That
being said, it will still be the main influence in our weather
through the end of the week, largely keeping us dry outside of
any isolated showers or thunderstorms that pop up each
afternoon. Thus, PoPs still nearly nil for us until mid-late
weekend. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the guidance
towards the end of the period, but rain chances likely don`t
increase too significantly until the beginning of next week as
upper level ridging begins to move off to the east. Temps and
humidity will gradually trend warmer through the end of the
period, with highs in the upper 80s and 90s possible by Monday
and Tuesday. With the persistent pattern, wildfire smoke likely
hangs around through the period as well, though hopefully the
thickness and associated health impacts trends downward with
time.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will keep mainly dry/VFR conditions across the
area tonight and the next few days. Wildfire smoke has dropped
visibilities into the 6-9SM range this evening and additional
reductions are possible overnight. Increasing cloud cover should
limit the fog potential overnight and may also help keep
visibilities from dropping much. The best chance for MVFR
visibility will be IPT, where visibilities have been stuck at 6SM
for several hours this evening.

On Wednesday, high pressure remains in control but a few light
showers cannot be ruled out. Best chance would be in the
northern tier affecting BFD, but any impacts should not
lead to restrictions.

Outlook...

Thu-Sun...Reduced visibility from smoke/haze; isolated
afternoon/evening showers possible, but for the most part, VFR
continues.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The low temperature of 41 degrees was observed in Bradford on
August 2nd, which tied the previous record set back in 1985.

The low temperature of 47 degrees was observed in Altoona on
August 3rd, which broke the previous record of 48 degrees set
back in 1959.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCCX radar is down due to a malfunctioning part. The part is
on order and will be installed upon delivery. Electronic
Technicians hope to have the radar up and running again by
Thursday 8/7 at the latest.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ006-012-
018-019-026>028-036-045-056-057-059-063>066.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
PAZ037-041-042-046-049>053-058.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Bauco/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Bauco/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Bauco/Banghoff
AVIATION...Banghoff
CLIMATE...NPB
EQUIPMENT...Banghoff