320
FXUS61 KCTP 022333
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
733 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Drier/less humid/more comfortable conditions are likely for
  today through Friday, with a high confidence of dry weather
  and seasonable temperatures on Independence Day
* Trending warmer and more humid this weekend; unsettled pattern
  returns by Sunday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Near to slightly below normal PWAT air with abundant sunshine
will continue over the bulk of the CWA for the rest of today,
giving us a welcome break from the humid and rainy conditions
of the past several days.

Temps will rise another deg F or so late this afternoon with
maxes varying from the upper 70s across the higher terrain of
the north and west, to the mid and upper 80s respectively in the
central and southern valleys, which are very near seasonal
normals.

Mainly clear sky conditions are expected for most of the night,
until the approach of a weak cold front from the N with some
high based strato cu and alto cu spilling SE into the CWA
toward daybreak.

Weak ridging over the area should allow for light wind and some
valley fog. The fog should not be as widespread as this (Wed)
AM. The clouds coming in with the front will try to make a
shower around or just before sunrise over the NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave trough aloft and a 300 mb speed max of 70+KTs will
help support some taller showers and support a MRGL risk of
severe wx (with the western edge of SPC`s SLGT Risk of SVR
brushing our far eastern counties).

Deep layer shear will be 40-60KTs, with the higher values
across the NE. The cells should be moving along and PWATs much
nearer to normal than of late (1-1.25").

So, we`re not expecting any flooding issues, but some localized
strong wind gusts from healthy DCAPE and marginally severe hail
from a lowering freezing level are possible.

Did add in a 20 PoP to the SE after 00Z, but those SHRA/TSRA
should dwindle quickly after sunset and the passage of the best
meso-B forcing in the early evening. One more chance for fog
(only in the valleys of the nrn mtns) Fri AM.

We continue to have high confidence/conviction in a really nice
Independence Day with a near zero chance for rain and great
viewing for fireworks. The wind will be pretty light, if not
calm, at 8-9PM, and may keep the smoke around with little
evacuation. Min temps Friday night will be quite comfortable in
the low 50s to low 60s.

Humidity levels start to creep upward to start the first
weekend of July; however it will remain dry with unsettled
weather expected to return Sunday into early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Compared to previous guidance, today`s model runs have slowed
down with the arrival of precip associated with a shortwave
trough late Sunday. Most of the day looks hot and mostly sunny
with highs in the upper 80s. PoPs increase into Monday as the
trough arrives. Forecast uncertainty increases Tuesday and
Wednesday, as several ensemble members show showers/storms
lingering as the front slows down, while much of the
deterministic guidance has drier air pushing in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Skies are mainly clear this evening over Central PA and VFR
conditions are expected through the night. Patchy valley fog
will likely form overnight, but model soundings suggest that
impacts at any TAF sites are unlikely.

The main focus for the 00Z TAF period is a couple of shortwaves
that will traverse the region and bring isolated showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the area. The first shortwave will
move through overnight and may bring a few weakening showers
into BFD after 06Z. A PROB30 has been included to highlight this
threat. Most guidance suggests that these showers will struggle
to make it any farther to the east. The second shortwave and its
associated surface cold front will move in during the afternoon
and will trigger a few thunderstorms over eastern PA. These
thunderstorms will have the best chance of impacting IPT, MDT,
and LNS, while areas farther to the west likely remain dry.

Outlook...

Fri-Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR.

Mon...Thunderstorms developing in the afternoon.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Colbert
AVIATION...Bauco