046
FXUS61 KCTP 071051
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
651 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* A cold front over Central PA will push south and east today,
  forcing more showers and thunderstorms. Less places will get
  wet compared to Friday.

* Low pressure will develop over the OH Valley and cross the
  Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, spreading additional storms and
  perhaps more heavy rain up into PA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Wave crawling west to east to the south of the MD border will
continue to drive SHRA/TSRA for areas S rte 22 for much of the
morning. None of the rain looks heavy at this point, and
flooding probalems are not expected. The dewpoint front is
clearly moving into the nrn mtns at 11Z with 50s into ERI and
GKJ and just N of the NY border. This drier air should begin to
clear/sct out the sky there. As the sun rises higher, it should
take care of the fog there.

Prev...
A cold front lies over the central mountains early this
morning. Drier air is starting to work in behind the front, and
should help dry out the northwest. Dewpoints will be into the
M50s by mid-day there. However, current convection over the NE
and far SW will likely get connected by scattered showers and
storms today as the front crawls to the SE. Most of the rain
will be on the light side. But, a brief heavy downpour cannot be
ruled out, mainly in the E, since PWATs remain over 1.5" for
the SE, and CAPE will approach 1000J/kg again. Lots of cloud
cover will argue against getting large CAPE. Shear is weak to
non-existent in the lowest 20kft, but the evacuation at the top
of the storms will be good (50-70kt) at MDT in the top-third of
the tallest storms. SPC has the southern half of the CWA in
general thunder, but wouldn`t be surprised to see a storm or two
get near severe strength. Likewise, the WPC has us out of the
excessive rainfall risk, but the above numbers and weak wind
profile say that there could be a spot or two pick up a little
more rain than they can handle. We do need a trigger/forcing to
help things to form. That forcing could be passing too early in
the day (what`s over WV at this time), but may stay to the west
just long enough to kick things into a higher gear in the SE.

Temps will be held in check by the cloud cover and the arrival
of the drier/slightly cooler airmass. Maxes similar to Friday
except in the SE where it will probably stay in the 70s, instead
of M80s like they attained on Fri.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The dry patch tonight won`t last very long, as low pressure
develops over the OH Valley and rolls just to our south on
Sunday. The most likely scenario out of this pattern is a slug
of rain and possible thunder moving across our southern tier.
Many models and WPC guidance put the heaviest rain on Sunday
right over our CWA. NAM and GFS differ on the location of the
best precip. The NAM generates the most QPF in our srn half,
particularly the SE. The GFS lingers the weak warm
front/occlusion to our west a little longer than the NAM. This
difference results in a low-confidence forecast for the threat
for heavy rainfall. But, the PoPs are easily categorical (80+%)
for the S and E on Sunday and Sunday evening. Temps will be 3-5F
cooler than today, nudging us below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The next period of dry weather will be mid-late week.
Temperatures close to normal for most of next week.

Earlier discussion below.

Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week with
rounds of showers likely as an amplified upper trough across the
Central US and Ohio Valley shears NE across the Glakes Region by
the middle of the week.

SFC and Upper level ridging over head and to our west will bring
drier conditions for much of the period Wednesday through early
Friday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Wave crawling west to east to the south of the MD border will
continue to drive SHRA/TSRA for areas mainly S of rte 22 for
much of the morning. The dewpoint front is clearly moving into
the nrn mtns at 11Z with 50s into ERI and GKJ and just N of the
NY border. This drier air should begin to clear/sct out the sky
there. As the sun rises higher, it should help dissipate the
fog there. Low clouds elsewhere will resist clearing until the
dry air arrives.

Prev...
Recent HREF/GLAMP guidance decrease precipitation mentions
after 12Z Saturday for many airfields, so have decided to take a
more targeted approach with VCSH/SHRA mentions given the
scattered nature. Highest potential (~60-80%) probabilities
outline favored upslope areas (JST/AOO) and SE PA (MDT/LNS) for
precipitation with much lower confidence at other airfields.

Outlook...

Sun...Next round of showers/t-storms spreads from SW
to NE into Sunday night.

Mon-Tue...Unsettled pattern continues with additional rounds of
showers and t-storms.

Wed...Scattered PM showers/storms; otherwise, VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Gartner
AVIATION...Dangelo/NPB/Tyburski