176
FXUS61 KCTP 092218
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
618 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle south of the state over the next
couple of days, helping warmer air to surge in Monday and
Tuesday. Expect widespread high temperatures in the 60s on
Tuesday, and 50s and lower 60s for the rest of the week. The
next chance of widespread precipitation won`t come until next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Full sunshine throughout central PA early this evening with
winds slowly diminishing after rather efficient mixing
throughout the afternoon. A moisture challenged shortwave trough
whisking through the brisk NW flow will stir winds up again late
tonight after the evening settling. No precip expected, but
there will be some increase in clouds over the far north
tonight. Mins drop into the 30s for everyone, with milder mins
on the high ground of south central PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A flat (W-E) sfc ridge will be in control for the period as it
lays to our south. This means dry weather and few clouds.
Dewpoints and temperatures will run about 10F warmer than
Sunday. Maxes should get into the m50s in the nrn mtns, and
60-62F for everywhere along and SE of IPT-UNV-AOO. The ridge
stays in place Mon night, but the gradient starts to tighten
across the NW as a dry cold front approaches from the NW. Expect
mins in the 30s under a mostly clear sky. The coolest spots will
probably be the valleys of the east where the wind will be
lightest, longest.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence in no precip and continued warming trend on
Tuesday. Fcst highs 60-70F which are 15 to 25 degrees above the
historical average for early March.

Latest NBM is tempering mid week high temperatures due to signal
for cold air damming east of the Appalachians arriving
Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty around precip probs
for midweek with some rain possible in the northern tier along
a wavy frontal zone. There should be more of a north south temp
gradient with highs ranging from around 50F along the NY border
to 70F in the southern tier valleys east of the mtns along the
MD line.

A more significant chance of widespread rain next Sat/Sun.
Temperatures are projected to remain above normal/climo through
the end of next week with fcst highs in the 55-65F range.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Interesting challenge for tonight will not be any reductions to
visby or cloud coverage/base - as there will be little to no
cloud cover over most of the state tonight. It will be the wind,
which should start to settle down in the evening, but increase
for a short while in the middle of the night as a weak
trough/cold front passes through. It is very subtle, but does
allow some mixing. That could make gusts go back up to about
20KT for a few hours around and after midnight, mainly in the
west (BFD, JST). But, some increase is possible in AOO-UNV, as
well. The wind should get lighter again toward sunrise. LLWS is
expected as a noticeable LLJet crosses the state during that
time frame and into the early morning. Speed increases to over
40KTs are possible down to FL020.

VFR conditions will occur for the next few days as high
pressure to our south fends off moisture and directs warmer air
into the state from the west. A dry cold front will pass
through later on Tues-Tues night. This will cause gusty winds as
the sfc pres gradient tightens up, but cloud cover will be
rather limited and high-based. No precipitation is expected on
Tues.

Outlook...

Wed...VFR/no sig wx.

Thu...Isold SHRA possible mainly wrn PA.

Fri...VFR/no sig wx.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Astronomical Spring (Vernal Equinox) will start at 5:01 am EDT
on March 20th.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Tyburski
AVIATION...Dangelo
CLIMATE...Steinbugl