848
FXUS61 KCTP 040213
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1013 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* High pressure overhead will maintain dry weather and
  seasonable temperatures through at least Wednesday.
* Humidity will gradually increase through the week and into
  next weekend
* Isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible Wed-Fri, but
  even in that period, most of Central PA will likely be dry
  most of the time

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure overhead will keep clear skies, light winds,
and low PW values in place tonight into Monday. Main change was
to lower min temperatures tonight and Monday night in line with
other offices such as BUF. Patchy ground fog and river valley
fog are possible late tonight.

For Monday, looking at a large rise in temperature from morning
to late aft (+30 deg for most locations). Smoke from the
Canadian wildfires will filter into the region, with increased
concentrations of fine particle pollution across the northern
tier of Pennsylvania. A Code Orange Air Quality Alert has been
issued across the northern tier, where air pollution may become
unhealthy for sensitive groups.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions will remain favorable for another cool night Monday
night, with lows in the 50s to low 60s. Tuesday will be
similar to Monday, another dry day, as the high pressure system
remains over the region.

A weakness in the upper flow between the the southeast US ridge
and ridging over the western US will introduce a small chance
for isolated showers generally over south central PA on Wed into
Wed Night, but most of the region should remain dry. Model
guidance shows a fairly thick cloud deck around 10000 ft AGL,
but plenty of dry air beneath it.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term will feature a more typical late summer pattern
with a ridge aloft over the southeast U.S. and a more zonal flow
across the Great Lakes and points north. Humidity will creep up
into the weekend, but the chance for any organized precipitation
remains on the low side at this time. It will ultimately depend
on how much moisture comes up the East Coast on strengthening
easterly flow on the south side of the high pressure system as
it moves over the Canadian Maritimes.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are virtually certain (~100% confidence) at all
airfields outside of BFD/UNV/IPT through 00Z Tuesday based on
recent model guidance. At BFD/UNV, persistence forecasting
continues to outline some threat for restrictions near sunrise
(09-11Z Monday) with brief restrictions towards MVFR/IFR
possible; however, model guidance continues to be less keen on
this solution. Medium confidence (~50-60%) in restriction
timing/magnitude at BFD/UNV, with lower (~20-30%) confidence
with regards to any restrictions at IPT given slightly drier air
in the lower levels. After 11Z Monday, high confidence in VFR
conditions prevailing at BFD/UNV/IPT; however, cannot rule out
some smoke from the Canadian wildfires across the northern tier
(BFD/IPT) although visibility restrictions are not expected at
this time.

Outlook...

Tue...Dry with VFR conditions.

Wed-Fri...Isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
possible, but for the most part, VFR continues.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The low temperature of 41 degrees was observed in Bradford on
August 2nd, which tied the previous record set back in 1985.

The low temperature of 47 degrees was observed in Altoona on
August 3rd, which broke the previous record of 48 degrees set
back in 1959.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Monday night for
PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Martin/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Martin/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Martin/Colbert
LONG TERM...Colbert/Tyburski
AVIATION...NPB
CLIMATE...NPB