295
FXUS61 KCTP 131601
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1201 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Periods of light rain and drizzle for this afternoon and
  early tonight, mainly across the eastern half of the CWA
* High pressure will build Southeast from the Upper Great Lakes
  with cooler and dry weather is in store for the rest of the
  week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
Northern center of slow moving and gradually weakening surface
low pressure was located about 100 km east of KOXB at 15Z while
a compact upper vort center was dropping swd from the Laurel
Highlands to help maintain/consolidate the mean 500 mb trough
along the eastern Seaboard.

Several bands of generally light rain/drizzle were spiraling WWD
to the North and West of the aforementioned sfc low.

Atlantic moisture will continue to be thrown back into PA on
the flow around the complex sfc low off the coast. This will
cause more rain for eastern and central PA.

Additional rainfall amounts this afternoon and tonight will be
generally less than one tenth of an inch, but a few locations
across the Susquehanna Valley and points to the east could
receive another one-quarter of an inch.

Very little rain, if any, will fall west of Route 219.

The rain and clouds and cool/damming flow will keep the temps
below normal today over all but the NWrn 3 counties. Warren
should end up 5F above normal, while York will be about 10F
cooler than normal. Much of the CWA will be 10F colder than
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
5H heights rise tonight, signaling the end of the rain. The
clouds and a little drizzle do last until close to sunrise,
though. Breaks in the clouds will work in from the west
concurrently with an erosion of the cloud deck from mixing. By
the end of the day, even the eastern counties will see a good
deal of clearing. Temps do stay mild (5-10F > normals) tonight
under the clouds. The increasing sunshine will then help us
climb back to temps seen on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PoPs now gone from the N on Wed as the cold front moving through
Tues night and Wed MA will be devoid of moisture.

Cooler and very dry air will follow this front for the second
half of the week. The center of the large 1026 mb sfc high will
drift slowly SE from the Great Lakes to the Carolina Coast by
the end of the week.

The dryness will peak on Thursday with dewpoints only 25-35F in
the aftn. The wind could be gusty enough to create some concern
for our fire-weather sensitive partners. But, we`ll have a few
days to better examine those conditions. It will also be
dry/clear enough to cause frost/freeze conditions for the SE,
mainly on Friday morning. Then, temps rebound to 65-75F maxes on
Saturday thanks to the srly flow kicking in on the backside of
the high. Sat night will be the return of rain to the NW mtns
due to the approach of a broad storm system moving across the
middle of the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread MVFR will be seen throughout the Central Valleys and
Susquehanna region through this afternoon, while IFR Cigs will
hold tough across the higher terrain of the North and West as a
result of moist upslope flow and an arc of light rain rotating
westward across those parts of the state.

Cigs will likely drop by several hundred feet tonight with
mainly IFR stratus, patchy drizzle and ridgetop shrouding fog.

More in the way of improvement is expected on Tuesday, as the
coastal storm starts to move east of our area.

Outlook...

Tue...A little less breezy as the wind switches to North and
skies begin to clear.

Wed...A chance for restrictions mainly early/north with cold
front, otherwise VFR and becoming breezy.

Thu...VFR, still breezy.

Fri...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin