055
FXUS61 KCTP 281059
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
659 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Chilly fall-like pattern with low humidity continues through
  the end of August
* Reinforcing cold front to bring showers late today and early
  tonight: best chance north of I-80/west of I-99
* Meteorological Fall (September 1) kicks off with continued
  pleasant and dry conditions.
* Cooler than normal temperatures likely to prevail into the
  first weekend in September.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Tweaks to sky cover and near term temps to reflect trends. But,
otherwise we`re on track for another winner of a day over most
of the CWA. Just those late-day SHRA in the NW. But even the NW
will still have most of the day to enjoy the nice wx.

Prev...
Tough to see on sat images, but there does appear to be some
river valley fog occurring over the northern mountains. BFD is
down to 37F, right where they bottomed-out yesterday. Any frost
should be patchy as the air is rather dry.

High clouds will linger a little, but it should be mainly sunny
this morning. Clouds will thicken up over the NW late in the
day with a fresh SWrly breeze. A cold front diving down from
the Upper Great Lakes should be preceded by a weak trough. The
trough will pop showers and thunderstorms over LE and NWrn PA
late this afternoon. Maxes in the u60s NW as the clouds thicken
there first, and 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The showers will spread to the south and east in the evening.
Stability rises as the evening continues, and not many showers
should survive into the southern counties as the airmass
remains dry (sfc dewpoints in the 40s). PoPs near 80 are good
for the N tapering off to about 30pct for JST-UNV-SEG. The
CFROPA should take place in the evening NW, and by morning in
the central counties. The SHRA should be tapered off for the CWA
around 2-3AM. By the time the front arrives in the Lower Susq
Fri morning, there won`t be much moisture left and forcing will
be long gone up into NY/New England.

Colder than normal temps are expected again tonight, but not
quite as chilly as Thurs AM. Expect mins about 5F milder, thanks
to some wind and cloud cover.

Behind the front on Friday...cross-lake flow of chilly air will
percolate some SHRA off the lake. But, the overall dryness of
the airmass should limit them. Most won`t make it too far into
the CWA, and chc of meas prcip from them is very low, so we`ve
left mentions out for now. Maxes Fri will be much cooler than
Thurs. Along the NY border, they may stay <60F. Under a
clearing sky and a dying NW wind, the temps should get back down
to about Thurs AM`s numbers.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure from north-central Canada will keep it (very) dry
for the weekend. The compact upper low just to our NE will
finally lift away before the start of the work week, but
troughiness remains. The sfc high should fend off rainfall until
the second half of the upcoming week. However, LLVL SE flow
could make for some pesky low clouds at times. Temps rise only
slightly for the first half of the week (maxes in the 70s and
lower 80s).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions are expected overnight with scattered
high clouds moving in as a weak upper level disturbance tracks
through Pennsylvania. While patchy valley fog may form tonight,
confidence is too low to include any mentions. In fact, the
HREF shows only a 20% chance of visibility dropping below 6
miles.

Cloud cover will increase through the day on Thursday ahead of
an approaching shortwave. The surface cold front will move into
northwest PA during the late afternoon and will bring showers to
BFD after 22Z. These showers will spread southeastward through
the evening and into the overnight hours. IFR restrictions are
likely at BFD, while MVFR conditions are favored at JST with VFR
elsewhere.

Outlook...

Fri...VFR cigs with isolated diurnal rain showers.

Sat-Mon...AM valley fog; otherwise VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Altoona set a record low temperature yesterday (8/27) of 43
degrees (45 in 1958).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo
AVIATION...Banghoff/Bauco
CLIMATE...Dangelo