487
FXUS61 KCTP 030726
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
326 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push off of the Mid Atlantic coast tonight
and Wednesday. A dying cold front will push in from the Great
Lakes Wednesday night, then stall out over the area late this
week. Low pressure tracking north of Pennsylvania will drag a
cold front through the state Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Upper level ridging building over PA will result in fair weather
across the forecast area tonight. Late evening satellite
imagery shows a decent amount of upstream mid and high level
cloudiness over Western PA and Lk Erie associated with warm
advection aloft preceding a weak shortwave riding the top of the
building ridge. Therefore, expect an increase in clouds
overnight with partly cloudy wording sufficing for most of the
area.

Mostly clear skies through late evening, combined with a light
wind and dry air, may allow the eastern half of the state to
fall a bit below NBM guidance for min temps tonight. However,
increasing cloud cover and a southerly return flow associated
with the departing surface high should result in much milder
conditions than last night. Most locations should be in the
upper 50s to low 60s by dawn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Upper level ridging over PA should provide most of the region
with fair and warmer conditions Wednesday. The warmup will be
accompanied by an uptick in humidity as a southerly flow
increases ahead of a weak cold front over the Grt Lks. Model RH
profiles suggest the entire region will start Wednesday mostly
sunny. However, diurnal heating and surging low level moisture
should result a fair amount of afternoon cumulus, especially
over the W Mtns.

GEFS 2m temp anomalies are a few degrees above normal over the
W Mtns and near average elsewhere, translating to highs well
into the 80s areawide. Moisture advection and low level
convergence along an approaching low level jet could potentially
support a shower/tsra toward evening across Warren/Mckean
counties based on the latest HREF and 18Z operational runs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
All medium range guidance tracks a dying cold front southward
into Central PA Wed night into Thursday, accompanied by a good
chance of showers/tsra. Latest RH profiles suggest there will be
plenty of cloud cover and progged mid level flow doesn`t look
overly impressive. Therefore, the severe weather threat for
Thursday currently looks limited.

The front is progged to stall out in the vicinity of Southern
PA Thursday night, then return north as a warm front Friday
ahead of low pressure lifting across the Grt Lks. Falling
heights and surging pwats ahead of an upstream shortwave and
associated surface low lifting across the Grt Lks should bring a
round of showers/tsra in the Friday PM to Saturday timeframe.
Current guidance suggests the shortwave and bulk of the large
scale forcing will pass north of PA, leading to unimpressive
mean qpf in the ensemble plumes of 0.25 to 0.50 inches Fri PM to
Saturday.

The bulk of guidance now supports fair and seasonable conditions
Sunday into at least early Monday, as surface ridging and drier
air work in behind the cold front. Showers and storms return to
the forecast for early next week as another wave of low
pressure tracking to our north brings a cold front through the
region.

Temperatures in the long term forecast look above average,
especially overnight lows Wednesday through Friday night, when
EPS pwats are 150pct of normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure dome overhead will keep wind very light
overnight. The southerly wind will pick up a bit again on Wed.

There is a small window of time overnight when the wind just
aloft gets up to 25-35KTs, so we`ve mentioned LLWS in the wrn
forecasts, but the core of the faster wind is more over the NW,
and we don`t expect the SErn terminals to have LLWS.

A cold front will approach Wed night and lay out W-E over the
state on Thurs. The deep moisture Wed PM and Thurs will allow
for sct- nmrs TSRA. Arriving mid aftn at BFD, so have included
VCSH in BFD TAF starting 03/20Z and MVFR cigs/vsby in showers
with thunder possible after 23Z.


Outlook...

Wed night...TSRA NW (IFR poss), dry SE with no impacts.

Thu...AM low cigs and isold SHRA possible W Mtns. Sct PM TSRA
impacts possible over all the airspace, but mainly S of I-80.

Fri...sct TSRA, impacts possible, mainly PM, highest covg W.

Sat...sct-nmrs TSRA areawide, highest SE in PM.

Sun...AM fog poss. Otherwise, no sig wx.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 2024 was the warmest June on record for Bradford with a
mean temperature of 66.6F, breaking the old record of 65.8F set
in 2021.

June 2024 was the 3rd warmest June on record for Harrisburg with
a mean temperature of 76.0F.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Bauco
AVIATION...Gartner/Colbert
CLIMATE...Colbert