606
FXUS61 KCTP 181755
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
155 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Breezy and very mild conditions continue into Saturday
* A cold front will bring a chance for showers and storms
  Saturday and Saturday night - not a washout though
* Another batch of rain on Monday will precede moderating
  temperatures and fair weather for the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A developing southerly breeze in the wake of high pressure
departing to our east will transport notably milder air into the
region today with day to day temp increases of 10 to 20
degrees. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid and upper
60s across the higher terrain to the north and east of KIPT to
the mid 70s elsewhere. These readings will be 10-15 degrees
above climo for mid April. Occasional

As the axis of a strong Swrly LLJ slides east from the Ohio
Valley, increasing moisture transport and UVVEL near its nose
will lead to thickening/significant lowering of cloud bases
late this morning and early this afternoon (to lower end Altocu
and high end stratocu - in the 6-9 kft AGL range). This feature
could bring a few sprinkles this afternoon and evening mainly
across the NW half of the CWA. Latest 12Z HREF continues to
indicate a several hour period of decreasing cloud cover late
this afternoon and evening behind the main vert motion
associated with the warm front.

Vertical mixing to around the 4 KFT AGL today will transport
quite a bit of this wind to the sfc in gusts of 20 to 30 mph
this afternoon. Breezy conditions will continue into tonight and
persistent warm advection will lead to a very mild Saturday
morning with lows only around 60F. An approaching cold front
will spread thickening clouds and the chance of showers into the
NW Mtns very late Friday night/early Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Models have slightly slowed, but are in fairly good agreement
in carrying a cold front SE across the state Saturday
afternoon/evening. A few pre-frontal showers are possible
Saturday morning into early afternoon before the front sweeps
through.

As this front encounters the warm and moderately humid airmass
over Central PA and the Susq Valley, showers and thunderstorms
are probable Saturday afternoon/evening, primarily over the N
Mtns, closer the the parent shortwave and better large scale
forcing. Rather strong mid level flow and deep layer shear will
cover the entire region of Saturday with 700 mb winds of 60-70
KT from the west.

However, relatively meager instability (MU CAPE of 500 J/KG or
less) and weak forcing currently suggests severe weather is
unlikely. At present, SPC`s marginal risk area was trimmed back
and the entire CWA is within the general TSTM (sub severe)
category. QPF amounts will maximize in northwest PA where around
a quarter of an inch of rain is favored, while southeast PA may
not get a drop of rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Spring is springing with no mentions of snow in the long term
fcst. This is thanks to long-wave ridging overhead.

One major system pushes through the region on Mon/Mon night.
Another system moves thru late in the period (Friday-ish). 8H
temps in the double digits above zero will mean mild and even
warm temps for most of the period. Maxes in the u50s and 60s
Sunday, and then u30s to l50s overnight will be the coolest of
the bunch before an upward trend through the week. Mins should
stay above freezing in all of Central PA thru the period, with
many nights only dipping into the m50s in the S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period as mid and high
clouds move into central PA ahead of an approaching warm front.
South-southwest winds will gust 20-25kt. A 50 knot LLjet moves
into central PA after 19/00Z and will result in LLWS at all TAF
sites overnight.

Clouds will gradually lower from the northwest overnight and
through the day tomorrow. There could be some light showers
around in the morning before a better chance of showers and a
few storms on Saturday afternoon. Southwest winds will gradually
shift to the west with gusts of 20 to 25kts. MVFR cigs are
likely at BFD and possible at JST on Saturday, with VFR
elsewhere.

Outlook...

Sat PM...Sub- VFR cigs at KBFD and KJST into Sat night. Winds
trend lighter.

Sun...VFR. Chance of rain showers Sunday night as qstnry front
pivots back to the north as warm front.

Mon...Another round of showers with a few t-storms possible with
cold FROPA into Monday night. LLWS psbl.

Tue...Low cigs KBFD/KJST and few rain showers psbl early then
trending VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Dangelo
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Banghoff