Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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467 FXUS61 KCTP 300812 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 412 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will drift slowly east from the Ohio Valley, pushing east of the area late Tuesday. A cold front will push through on Wednesday and lead to drier and sunnier conditions for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Per latest water vapor loop, the upper low is somewhere over WV this morning. An axis of lowered heights extends ENE and over the CWA. Bands of rain only slightly heavier than drizzle continue to roll repeatedly over the south and creep up to I-80 at times as they dissipate. The llvl wind flow is slightly north of east over NErn PA, and drier air is starting to advect in from NY/New England. While it is not a dramatic change, there should be just enough of a decrease in deep-layer moisture to allow breaks of the clouds over the far N and far E parts of the CWA this aftn. That could help temps rise a couple more degs there today and the last few. The upper low will fill slightly and slip eastward today. The focus of the uplift and rainfall will be over the SW half of the CWA. We`ll continue the high-PoP forecast for the SW and lower values over the far N and E, shrinking (compressing?) them through the day to the SW. QPF still looks minimal outside 0.5-1.00" in the Laurels, along the MD border. That will not be near enough to create any flooding. Area creek and river gauges have barely ticked up from this prolonged rain. It is just good stuff at this point after such a dry summer down in the Laurels. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The center of the upper low will be over our southern tier or just to the south of PA Tuesday morning. overnight lows will again be only a few degs off the maxes of the previous day. But, the dewpoints will be lowering by a couple of degs. As the moisture feed slowly gets choked off by a New England sfc high poking into the CWA, the rain will start to dissipate on Tuesday, gradually ending over the south-central mountains last of all. The cloud cover is expected to remain at 100pct for the period for the SW third of the CWA. Thus, the max temps will stay down in the u50s and l60s there. Total clearing is not expected for the NE, but it might just become only fair weather cu in the aftn. Guidance brings cooler 8H temps to the N/E, and will probably keep it 1-3F cooler than Mon there. A cold front devoid of all but Great Lakes moisture will approach from the west, but should not arrive until Wed AM. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front will traverse the region Wednesday. A few showers may accompany this feature, but unimpressive pwats and the strongest forcing passing north of the state argue for minimal rainfall amounts at best. Expect brightening skies from west to east as the front passes and a drier northwest flow arrives. Fair and warm weather looks likely Thursday, as upper level ridging builds over PA, then a Friday night cold front passage may be accompanied by a few showers. Medium range guidance supports fair and seasonable weather next weekend, as high pressure builds across the state. The next chance of showers will come Sunday night with the approach of another cold front. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Poor flying conditions will persist across Central PA overnight into this morning as low clouds, light rain/drizzle and fog keep predominantly IFR/LIFR conditions entrenched across the region. Expect some modest improvement to MVFR conditions for all but the far southwestern airfields (JST/AOO) by Monday afternoon. Monday evening will bring a return toward IFR conditions for much of the Alleghenies. Outlook... Tue...Light rain/low cigs likely, especially across the southwest. Wed...AM rain/low cigs possible, then PM improvement. Thu-Fri...Drier weather, with primarily VFR conds expected outside of patchy morning valley fog. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Guseman/Evanego