696
FXUS61 KCTP 140959
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
559 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Gradual decrease in clouds today marks the start of another
  prolonged dry/rain-free stretch through Saturday
* Seasonable temperatures bottom Thursday night then trend
  warmer/well above the historical average this weekend
* Rain is most likely Sunday into Sunday night followed by a
  breezy cool down to start next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low clouds wrapping around the northwest side of the departing
coastal storm are expected to gradually (slowly) decrease
through the day. Initial guidance has been too optimistic on
the clearing, so we were keen to ramp up and prolong the clouds
(perhaps getting stuck under the subsidence inversion)
utilizing a sky cover blend weighted heavily toward the 90th
percentile. More clouds could also knock down max temps by a few
degrees from current fcst highs in the 60-70F range or about
+10F warmer vs. yesterday.

Following at least partial clearing by early evening, the latest
HREF favors another uptick in layered cloud cover (from NW->SE)
later tonight into Wednesday morning. This cloud increase
appears to be in response to a shortwave tracking to the north
through NY and arrival of a weak/moisture-starved cold front.
Best chance (~10%) of rain with the front is downwind of Lake
Erie based on the latest NBM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler and very dry air (PWAT values -1 to -2SD or <= 0.4") will
advect into the region behind the cold front Wednesday afternoon
through late week. This will send max/min temps on a seasonal
downward trajectory which should reach a nadir Thursday night
with low temps in the 25-40F range. Frost/freeze headlines may
be needed Thu night into AM Friday for the 7 counties still
active in the growing season in the Lower Susquehanna Valley
(see latest PNSCTP for update on growing season).

The daytime dryness will peak on Thursday with room for downside
to minRH in the 25-35% range. 20-25 mph wind gusts particularly
over the eastern portion of the area could create some concern
for fire weather partners depending on how quickly dead fine
fuels can cure post the cool/wet/dank Columbus Day and weekend
rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mild trend ramps through the weekend with max temps 65-75F
behind an increasing southerly return flow on the backside of
departing sfc high pressure. Latest model data continues to
favor dry/rain-free wx through Saturday.

Strong upper trough and well defined frontal system should tap
Gulf moisture moving east of the Mississippi River. This
system will most likely bring rain/showers to CPA Sunday
through Sunday night/early Monday. Timing could easily shift
+/- 12hr with GFS and EC showing their typical fast/slow bias at
this range, but overall the models are in pretty good agreement
showing the frontal rainfall on Sunday transitioning to a cooler,
breezy post-frontal NW flow to begin next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low CIGS along with some areas of fog and light showers will
linger into mid to late morning.

A deep storm off the mid Atlantic coast will slowly move
eastward later today, as a large upper level high pressure
system moves toward central PA. This will result in clouds
breaking up, with VFR conditions later this aft.

A strong cold front will drop southward across PA on
Wednesday, with windy conditions developing. The airmass
behind the cold front is quite dry, so not expecting much
in the way of clouds off the Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Wed...A chance for restrictions mainly early/north with cold
front, otherwise VFR and becoming breezy.

Thu...VFR, still breezy.

Fri-Sat...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin