206
FXUS61 KCTP 111918
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
318 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Above average heat with little to no rainfall through Tuesday
* Very humid with locally heavy T-storm downpours Wednesday PM
* Dry spell with hot temperatures Friday into the weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Diurnal cumulus fades with the loss of heating this evening into
early tonight. Primary change to the near term fcst was to
increase low cloud cover and add fog for late tonight into AM
Tuesday based on a modified/extrapolated persistence from last
night, increasing llvl moisture via south/southeast flow, and
latest 11/12Z hires model signal. Min temps will be +5 to +10
degrees higher night over night with low temps in the 60-70F
range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low clouds and fog will mix out after sunrise early Tuesday
morning, giving way to a hot and humid afternoon. Max temps are
+5-10F above the historical average for mid August ranging from
lower 80s on the highest mtn ridgetops to the low 90s in the
central and eastern valleys. KBFD could break a daily record
high (87 in 2005).

Increasing low level moisture (Td in the 60-70F range) combined
with strong daytime heating and orographic forcing suggests
isolated convection is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.
While most of the afternoon will be dry in most places, we can`t
rule out a stray shower or pop-up T-storm anywhere in central
PA. Even more muggy/sticky Tuesday night adding +2-5F on to
Monday night`s lows with minimum temps in the low 60s-70s.

Max POPs on Wednesday as high PW axis (1.5-1.75") and elongated
frontal zone push into CPA from the Lower Great Lakes.
Widespread scattered convection is likely supporting locally
heavy rains and isolated runoff issues (marginal excessive rain
risk/WPC ERO). There are model indications that the frontal
zone may/will be slow to exit southern PA on Thursday PM which
could result in some lingering showers/storms. In this scenario,
the drying/clearing trend arriving from north to south will be
delayed until Thursday night -- setting up a more comfortable
and less humid end to the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lower humidity on Friday will bring some minor temporary relief,
but overall there is no end to the run of hot/above normal
temperatures through mid August. Another dry spell looks
probable through at least the first half of the weekend, with an
increase in rainfall potential Sunday and Monday as front sinks
southward from the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sct-bkn VFR cumulus over the western and southern parts of the
airspace will fade to mainly SKC for the first half of tonight.
An increasingly moist south to southeast low level wind flow
will aid in low stratus and fog development late tonight into
early Tuesday morning. The highest chances for sub-VFR
restrictions are at KMDT/KLNS (>60%). The low clouds and fog
will mix out with conditions likely improving to VFR by 15Z Tue.
We can`t rule out a stray shower or t-storm Tue afternoon, but
most of the time will be VFR.

Outlook...

Wed...Restrictions likely with locally heavy showers and
t-storms.

Thu...Lingering showers/storms possible across the southern
airspace.

Fri...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR.

Sat...VFR/no sig wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl