718
FXUS61 KCTP 191335
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
935 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Breezy and very mild conditions early today
* A cold front will push southeast across the region today,
  accompanied by showers and scattered thunderstorms, with a few
  containing strong westerly wind gusts over 60 mph.
* After a partly sunny, cooler and drier Easter Sunday, another
  batch of rain on Monday will precede moderating temperatures
  and fair weather for the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early AM Update...
Latest timing for showers and storm in the north has been based
largely on HRRR and RAP data, as they are handling the
timing/placement of these shortwaves and their precip/storms the
best. Still expecting storms to be strong to severe over the
northwest, and SPC has expanded the MRGL risk to cover all of
Central PA. Most CAMs do not bring storms into the SErn third of
the area, though. Capping from the ridge aloft may limit
convection, or at least deep convection. Multiple shots of
precip in the extremely fast steering flow will make for a busy
afternoon and early evening.

Prev..
Variable amounts of high-based stratocu and altocu clouds
combined with a light to moderate south to southwesterly breeze
provided us with a very mild overnight with pre daybreak
temps ranging from the 50s over and to the east of the Susq
Valley, to the low 70s across the Laurel Highlands where the
gradient wind was gusting to around 30 kts.

High resolution EFS are fairly consistent with the timing of a
cold front pushing southeast across PA today, though
instability has ramped up by several hundred J/KG, especially
over the southern half of the state. Deep layer shear there will
be less than across the north, where the timing of the cold
fropa during the early to mid afternoon near and just to the
north of the I-80 corridor coincides with max heating and the
best 0-3 KM shear with WSW winds at the top of the layer around
90KTs.

A few fast-moving (from 250-270 deg at 50-55 kts) line segments
(and mini bow echoes with localized, descending rear inflow
jets and straight-line wind damage from gusts of 55-65 mph)
will be the main severe weather threat today.

Rainfall amounts will be between 0.30 and 0.50 inch across the
NW Mtns and generally less than 0.25 pf an inch over the SE half
of the CWA. Some places across the far southeast part of the
CWA may escape measurable rain altogether.

Gradient winds in the warm sector ahead of this front will be
Swrly at 15 to 20 mph with occasional gusts around 35 mph.

Max temps today will range from the upper 60s across the NW mtns
(where the thickest clouds and earlier occurrence of convection
and the cfropa will occur) to the mid 70s to mid 80s
respectively over the Western Mtns and Central/Southern Valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A period of lower cigs across Central and Nrn Pa will likely
occur in the wake of the cold front tonight with a brief shower
or two still possible up until around midnight. Scattered
showers or an evening thunderstorm will be found across Southern
PA.

a moderately gusty NW breeze in the teens to mid 20s follows the
cfront late tonight and Easter Sunday morning. Sunday will be
partly to mostly cloudy and cooler with the 24 hour, max temp
change of about 12 to 15 deg F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Spring is springing with no mentions of snow in the long term
fcst. This is thanks to long-wave ridging overhead. One major
system pushes through the region on Mon/Mon night. Another
system moves thru late in the period (Friday-ish). 8H temps in
the double digits above zero will mean mild and even warm temps
for most of the period. Maxes in the u50s and 60s Sunday, and
then u30s to l50s overnight will be the coolest of the bunch
before an upward trend through the week. Mins should stay above
freezing in all of Central PA thru the period, with many nights
only dipping into the m50s in the S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions in place at 12z with south-southwest winds
gusting to 20 knots. A 50 knot low-level jet moving in will
create LLWS concerns at all TAF sites into the morning.

BFD will see showers and tstms slide by just to their north
early, before a cluster of thunderstorms /currently in Ohio/
quickly slides through bringing brief restrictions between
14-16z, impacting BFD and potentially extending down to UNV/IPT.

After a several hour break and a return to VFR, additional
showers/tstms expected in the mid/late afternoon 20z-00z again
expected to bring stronger wind gusts and brief restrictions.

After the storms pass, MVFR cigs are likely at BFD and will
lower further to IFR during the evening. Most guidance suggests
that MVFR ceilings will make it to JST by 22Z. The low clouds
likely do not make it much farther than that, with the HREF only
showing a 30% chance of MVFR ceilings impacting UNV and AOO.

Outlook...

Sun...VFR. Chance of rain showers Sunday night as qstnry front
pivots back to the north as warm front.

Mon...Another round of showers with a few t-storms possible with
cold FROPA into Monday night. LLWS psbl.

Tue...Low cigs KBFD/KJST and few rain showers psbl early then
trending VFR.

Wed...VFR with mainly clear skies and light winds.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Banghoff
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Dangelo
AVIATION...Banghoff/Bauco/RXR