839
FXUS61 KCTP 281659
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1159 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
*Breezy and cooler for the last day of February 2025
*Windy and cold start to March with snow showers Saturday
*Spring-like warming trend precedes rain into next Wednesday
 followed by another cool down for late week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will drift
over Central PA this afternoon. Warming aloft/falling inversion
heights in its wake will help to clear the bulk of the stratocu
clouds from our Western Zones after 18Z. Variable amounts of mid
and high clouds will follow closely in the wake of any clearing
across the Northern half of the CWA, while the southern third to
half of the region breaks into a decent amount of sunshine this
afternoon as the west-northwest breeze backs to the southwest
and becomes moderately gusty.

Previous Disc...

Despite fcst highs within a few degrees either side of climo,
max temps trend cooler on the margin vs. yesterday (as much as
10 degrees cooler in the lower Susq Valley) with a west to
southwest breeze adding a bit of a chill.

Strong/deep clipper sfc low tracks from the northern MI/Lake
Huron up the Saint Lawrence River Valley tonight through
Saturday morning. Tight gradient flow from the southwest favors
a non diurnal curve (temps holding steady to slightly rising
overnight) in most places -- with the exception being the far
NW mtns where the leading edge of colder/arctic air should
arrive by 29/1200 UTC or during the second half of the night.
The approaching mid/upper trough along with increasing llvl CAA
and terrain enhancement downwind of Lake Erie supports very high
precip probs (rain to snow showers) over the NW Alleghenies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cold/arctic front sweeps across CPA Saturday morning and can`t
rule out a couple of heavier snow showers or bands with the
frontal passage. The rest of the first day of March will be
windy and cold with falling temps and frequent wind gusts in
the 25-35 mph range. Wind chills are fcst in the single digits
and teens over the northwest 1/2 of the CWA by the late
afternoon. We were keen to ramp POPS way above baseline NBM and
in-line with hires models which indicate a strong signal for multi
band lake effect/upslope snow showers extending well inland to
the southeast of Lake Erie along with a possible Huron connection.
The perennial snowbelts in the NW mtns and favored summits and
ski resorts in the Laurels should pick up an inch or two of
fluffy snow by Sunday morning with low temps 10-20F and min
wind chills mainly in the -5F to +10F range (a few spots in the
western and northern mtns could see WCs as low as 10 below
zero).

Snow showers and flurries likely linger into Sunday morning
especially over the northern tier. Low clouds are also likely to
persist in the NW Alleghenies under the subsidence inversion.
Max temps in the 20-35F range will be 10 to 20 degrees below the
historical average for the start of March.

Diminishing wind and clearing underneath the sfc high will make
for a seasonably cold Sunday night/early Monday morning. We
maintained lower adjustment to NBM min temps by a couple of
degrees to account for efficient radiational cooling. Fcst lows
in the single digits to mid teens are about 10 degrees below
climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fair/dry wx to start next week as high pressure slowing drifts
to the east. EPS prob charts indicate single digits lows are
very likely Mon AM across the NW Mtns. Fair and markedly warmer
weather appears likely Tuesday, as the surface high drifts off
of the Mid Atlantic Coast and a southerly flow ensues.

The latest EPS and GEFS both track a deepening surface low west
of PA through the Grt Lks Tue night into Wed night. The NAEFS
ensemble mean indicates this will be a highly anomalous -4SD
surface low as it tracks through the Eastern Grt Lks Wed PM.
Ahead of this system, mild weather will continue on Wednesday
with a period of rain likely, as the associated low level jet
overruns relatively cool/stable air at low levels over Central
PA. Latest plumes support the highest POPs of >90pct on
Wednesday, but rain could potentially arrive as early as Tue PM,
especially over the western counties. Abundant Gulf moisture
flowing into PA should support some much needed rainfall to the
area. Latest ensemble plumes indicate 0.5 to 1 inch is likely by
Wed PM.

Gusty northwest winds appear a very good bet Wed night into
Thursday behind the trailing cold front. The synoptic set up
of an intensifying low tracking north of PA and latest EPS
plumes both indicate wind gusts >40ts are possible Thursday.
Deep moisture within the deformation zone of the exiting low
will likely bring lingering light rain to mainly the Allegheny
Plateau Wed night, with change to snow showers Thursday as
colder air arrives.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS over the bulk of the region between Interstate 80
and the New York Border will linger through the early afternoon
before being replaced by a BKN-OVC layer of high based stratocu
and altocumulus clouds, based between 6-8 kft agl.

Elsewhere, and after 19Z across the north, there high (~90%)
confidence in all airfields reaching/staying at VFR thresholds
with the bulk of model guidance in decent agreement.

Precipitation enters central Pennsylvania generally near-to-
after 18Z Friday; however, the bulk of model guidance is in
decent agreement that precipitation mentions do not reach BFD
until closer to the 06Z Saturday timeframe. The best moisture
and forcing remains across the northern half of the forecast
area, thus have chances at BFD/UNV/IPT, with JST also being
highlighted for increased chances of precipitation at the
airfield. Rain is expected to be the predominant precipitation
type at first before a slow transition towards snow. Model
guidance does show some disagreement on timing of transition,
thus have trended closer to GLAMP guidance for the 12Z TAF
package. LLWS will also be an increasing concern under the
influence of an enhanced (~50-60kt) 850mb jet. Highest concern
is across the western airfields; however, chances look favorable
for all of central Pennsylvania as of the 12Z TAF package.

Outlook...

Sat...Rain/snow showers and gusty winds. Gusty winds and snow
showers Saturday night.

Sun...Low cigs and lingering snow showers possible early N&W
followed by gradual clearing/trend toward VFR by Monday morning.

Mon...Mainly VFR.

Tue...PM SHRA and restrictions poss.

Wed...Widespread Rain and sub VFR conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Banghoff
AVIATION...Lambert/NPB