459
FXUS61 KCTP 080627
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
227 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Cold front stalls overhead tonight and lies there for a couple
  of days.
* Thunderstorms will be focused primarily over the southeastern
  half of the Commonwealth on Tuesday.
* Seasonably warm and muggy for the rest of the week with
  scattered thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Small clusters of storms still going along/SE of I-81. Expect
these to continue to be strong for another couple of hours with
DCAPE still up over 1000J and effective shear of around 30KTs
per latest SPC mesoanalysis. The storms over the SW have
diminished to rain.

Coverage of showers fades overnight with a good signal for post
frontal low clouds over the western mtns and areas of fog
across the central and eastern valleys. Another warm and muggy
night in most locations with low temps in the 65-75F range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Max temps drop 5-10 degrees behind the front over the western
1/2 of the CWA on Tuesday. The latest guidance shows the front
stalling out or becoming quasi stationary over CPA by 00Z Wed.
Latest D2 outlooks from SPC and WPC include an upgrade to slight
risk for severe storms(level 2 out of 5) and excessive rainfall
(2 out of 4) mainly for areas to the southeast of the frontal
zone where there will be plenty of MLCAPE and 70+ dewpoints.
Tall or thin profiles suggest heavy rain potential along with
water-loading/severe downdraft potential. Latest CAMs depict
scattered thunderstorms congealing into a line of storms Tuesday
afternoon with an attendant increased risk for damaging straight
line winds.

Ahead of the rain, there also remains some concern for max HX
values to reach or exceed the century mark in the LSV Tuesday
afternoon. A heat advy may be needed; for now we coordinated
with PHI to not include any of the Lehigh/Lower Susq zones but
will continue to highlight in the HWO.

Best odds for a thunderstorm on Wednesday remains along the MD
line where the best moisture/instability overlay will exist. At
this time, t-storms are expected to be non-severe with heavy
rain risk shifting to the south of the Mason Dixon line. Max/min
temps remain seasonably warm for early/mid July.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PoPs rise again Thursday with the approach of another shortwave
trough. The forecast for Friday and the weekend is more
uncertain, with some guidance suggesting a break in the
unsettled pattern, and others suggesting active weather
continues. An active pattern would favor continue heat/humidity
while a quieter pattern could support the intrusion of lower
dewpoints and more refreshing conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A very sluggish, weak cold frontal boundary extended from near
KBFD to KPIT early this morning, preceded by a surface trough
from the Wyoming Valley south to the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

A few small clusters of slow moving showers (with brief heavy
rain) were noted along and just ahead of the cold front across
the North-central Mountains. Muggy air with sfc dewpoints in
the upper 60s to low 70s covered much of the SE 2/3rds of the
state at 06Z and these conditions will persist ahead of this
front across much of Central and SE PA, while slightly cooler
air with an 8-10 deg F drop in dewpoint values will occur across
the NW part of PA today.

Patchy fog is possible at all TAF sites early this morning.
However, cloud cover and a light breeze from the west early
today will likely negate a significant threat for widespread
fog. IFR/LIFR ceilings are favored for several hours at BFD and
JST with MVFR likely at IPT, UNV, and AOO.

A few additional showers could develop by midday today, but
showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread as we head
into the afternoon. Brief restrictions are possible everywhere
except BFD, with storms starting in the vicinity of a line
extending from JST/AOO to UNV to IPT and then moving east-
southeastward and affecting MDT and LNS later in the
afternoon/early evening.


Outlook...

Tue PM...Showers fade, fog possible across much of the region
into Wednesday morning.

Wed...Best chance for storms and restrictions in southern PA.

Thu-Sat...Potential for showers and thunderstorms, mainly
aftn/eve.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening
for PAZ057-059-065-066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
AVIATION...Lambert