849
FXUS61 KCTP 040956
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
456 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Seasonably mild and breezy conditions ahead for Central PA
  today, Wednesday and Friday with a chilly Thursday sandwiched
  in between.
* A few opportunities for rain showers Wednesday afternoon and
  evening, and again on Friday afternoon and evening, along with
  wind gusts exceeding 35 mph.
* Trending colder for next week with below normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clear skies noted across the entire CWA early this morning with
a moderately tight west to east sfc P-gradient helping to
maintain a relatively shallow,, well-mixed boundary layer with
West-Northwest winds averaging around 10 KTS and gusts in the
teens to low 20s.

Sfc ridge extending NE across the Central Appalachians today
will bring abundant sunshine this morning, but similar to
Monday another potent mid/upper level jet segment will lead to a
quick increase in Mid level, Altocu clouds during the late
morning and afternoon hours.

Wind gusts will climb into the upper teens to mid 20s
throughout the Central and Southern Valleys and reach around
30 kts on the ridge tops of the north and west.

High temps today will still be a few degrees above the
historical normals in the 50-55F range across the higher
terrain and near 60F throughout the Susquehanna Valley.

Look for varying amounts of Altocu clouds tonight which will
help to negate the development of a strong sfc-based inversion,
and maintain a shallow, well-mixed boundary layer with westerly
winds backing to the southwest and decreasing to under 6 kts
across the SE half of the CWA, while slightly higher winds and
gusts into the teens exists across the Northern and Western
Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions are expected to continue through the morning and
early afternoon hours on Wednesday, with relatively dry air at
850mb and 925mb to start off the day. Thermal belt influence
south of the region could begin to insert itself into portions
of south-central Pennsylvania and surrounding the Laurel
Highlands, thus while relative humidity values are in upper 30%
to lower 40% range, there will be some potential to undercut NBM
dewpoints/relative humidity on Wednesday. The main concern will
be incoming moisture from an approaching shortwave that could
curb the extent dry air mixing down to the surface. Winds will
remain fairly breezy during this timeframe with wind gusts
generally in near 20 mph with locally higher wind gusts across
Cambria and Somerset counties.

The next shortwave and accompanying sfc low/trailing cold front
will sweep through late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night.

This energetic system will bring lake enhanced and upslope
showers (primarily focused downwind of Lake Erie and over the
higher elevations) and another breezy to quite windy period
into Thursday.

Current fcst max gusts are near to slightly below advisory
criteria, and in the 35-45 mph range in many locations. However,
would not rule out a wind advisory yet as fcst soundings and
shorter duration pressure rises (up to 4-5 mb/3 hours Wednesday
evening beneath the thermally indirect, subsiding, right exit
region of an upper jet across southern PA) indicates the
potential for higher/stronger wind gusts > 40 mph in the 19Z
Wednesday through 06Z Thursday thanks to better dynamics and a
higher chc for showers with strong wind gusts in the north and
the core of a 3 sigma, westerly 850 mb wind max moving across
the southern half of PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Brisk/windy start Thursday should improve by the evening as
high pressure restarts the dry/showery/breezy cadence. The
repeat pattern evolves yet again by Friday with the high
migrating off the coast, allowing a fast and broad southwest
flow/WAA to expand eastward from the Ohio Valley. Some timing
differences start to show up with the frontal precip on Friday,
but on balance it looks like another showery and breezy period
to end the week.

Model and ensemble data show this weeks zonal/progressive flow
pattern becoming more amplified over the weekend and into early
next week. The large scale evolution would consist of a deep
upper trough carving out over the Eastern U.S. delivering much
colder/below normal temperatures by Veteran`s Day. It looks like
there may be one last surface wave and associated frontal
system moving through and driving showery precip on Sunday
followed by a persistent chilly cyclonic/northwesterly flow.
Recent model guidance continues to indicate increasing chances
for accumulating snow as we progress into the Sunday-Monday
timeframe across portions of central Pennsylvania, mainly
across the northern and western halves of the forecast area.
Lake- enhanced snow will bring higher chances for the
aforementioned accumulating snow across NW PA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Skies have cleared behind the departing cold front. There are
still some wind gusts in places like JST, but generally the
gustiness has subsided. LLWS continues across western and
central terminals given NW flow of 40-45 kts at 2kft.

A low humidity airmass will be building in for today, thus
mainly clear skies and VFR conditions are likely at near 100%
confidence. Wind gusts of 20-25 kts are likely during the late
morning and afternoon, followed by a decrease later today into
the evening as the pressure gradient relaxes ahead of the next
system. The next chance of rain showers and gusty winds will
arrive Wednesday afternoon along an approaching cold front.

Outlook...

Wed...Increasing clouds with a chance of showers. Restrictions
possible in the N/W. Becoming windy late Wed into Wed night.

Thu...Restrictions possible early (mainly north), improving
late.

Fri...Increasing clouds with more in the way of widespread
showers. Restrictions possible. Becoming windy.

Sat...Showers possible with restrictions, especially north/west.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/NPB
AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen