336
FXUS61 KCTP 041055
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
655 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* High pressure overhead will maintain dry weather and
  seasonable temperatures through at least Wednesday.
* Humidity will gradually increase through the week and into the weekend
* Isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible Wed-Fri,
  but even in that period, most of Central PA will likely be dry
  most of the time

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure overhead will keep clear skies, light winds,
and low PW values in place through today. Another morning with
widespread valley fog thanks to the cool airmass over relatively
warmer riverine waters.

As has been the case the last few days, we`ll be looking at a
large rise in temperature from morning to late aft (+30 deg for
most locations). Smoke from the Canadian wildfires will filter
into the region, with increased concentrations of fine particle
pollution across the northern tier of Pennsylvania. A Code
Orange Air Quality Alert has been issued across the northern
tier, where air pollution may become unhealthy for sensitive
groups.

High clouds will move overhead this afternoon, so the
combination of wildfire smoke and cirrus will lead to filtered
sunshine - though it will still be quite bright today. Highs
this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, which is a
few degrees warmer than it was yesterday. The dewpoints will
exhibit a similar uptick, though it will still feel very
comfortable.

Overnight, there will be increasing clouds aloft and at mid
levels. This should decrease the extent of valley fog on Tuesday
morning and keep temperatures a few degrees warmer compared to
this morning. Wildfire smoke will stay in place as well, so
stars will be a little tougher to see tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday will be similar to Monday, another dry day, as the high
pressure system remains over the region. Temperatures will
continue their upward trend as temperatures get back to near
normal.

A weakness in the upper flow between the the southeast US ridge
and ridging over the western US will introduce a small chance
for isolated showers generally over south central PA on Wed into
Wed Night, but most of the region should remain dry. Model
guidance shows a fairly thick cloud deck around 10000 ft AGL,
but plenty of dry air beneath it.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term will feature a more typical late summer pattern
with a ridge aloft over the southeast U.S. and a more zonal flow
across the Great Lakes and points north. Humidity will creep up
into the weekend, but the chance for any organized precipitation
remains on the low side at this time. It will ultimately depend
on how much moisture comes up the East Coast on strengthening
easterly flow on the south side of the high pressure system as
it moves over the Canadian Maritimes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing across the airspace
today with high pressure in control and light winds expected;
however, cannot rule out some smoke from the Canadian wildfires
across the northern tier (BFD/IPT) although visibility
restrictions are not expected at this time.

Aside from the smoke skies will remain mostly sunny to partly
cloudy today with high clouds possible from the west. Tonight
will be similar to the last couple of nights where some valley
fog from radiational cooling will be possible, but the duration
and extent of fog development remains tricky given the
uncertainty in dewpoints overnight.

Outlook...

Tue...Dry with VFR conditions.

Wed-Fri...Isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
possible, but for the most part, VFR continues.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The low temperature of 41 degrees was observed in Bradford on
August 2nd, which tied the previous record set back in 1985.

The low temperature of 47 degrees was observed in Altoona on
August 3rd, which broke the previous record of 48 degrees set
back in 1959.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ004>006-
010>012-037-041-042-045-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
LONG TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
AVIATION...NPB/Bowen
CLIMATE...NPB