950
FXUS61 KCTP 120931
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
531 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Periods of rain into Monday night, mainly for the eastern half
  of the CWA
* Becoming breezy in southeast PA
* High pressure brings cooler and dry weather for the rest of
  the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
One band of rain is crossing the CWA and has made 2/3rds of the
CWA wet already. It should continue moving westward and make the
western mountains wet, too. However, the next wave of forcing
to drive organized rainfall/showers will have a big gap for most
of the day today. Light rain may push in from the east again
later today, but hardly reach I-99 before falling apart. There
won`t be many breaks in the clouds, the temps will be rather
flat through the day, only getting into the 60-65F range in
most places. Hill tops and the far SE will be closer to 60F
while Warren Co with it`s corner on sunshine today could take a
run at 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The double-barrel upper low over the eastern states will
gradually merge into one, broad upper low/trough. The coastal
low position and strength is dependent on the eventual upper
pattern. That solution is still rather uncertain, especially
considering the short-range/time-horizon. Despite this
uncertainty, there aren`t many implications for our CWA from any
solution out there now. Light to moderate rain at times in the
east, and perhaps no more rain for our western tier of counties.
While the storm total QPF in the 1-1.25" range over the east
means little to the streams and rivers. None of it will be heavy
enough to cause any problems. But, I am sure it is all very
welcome to the parched earth of Central PA. The bad things is
that the most-dry section of our CWA (the W, esp the NW) is
going to pick up very little rain (maybe less than a tenth of an
inch) from this lingering/long-duration storm along/off the
coast. Temps remain mild tonight, but get a bit chillier on
Monday with more moisture overhead and falling from the sky vs
Sunday. The Poconos/Endless Mountains of the NE could stay in
the lower 50s. Warren Co will be the hottest place in the CWA
once again. Highs there may again be close to 70F. The rain is
progged to be a little faster to end on Monday night, and is no
longer expected to last into Tuesday. Chance (30-40) PoPs will
be confined to places east of the Susq Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry until Day 7. While there is a colder airmass moving down
from Canada in the middle of the week, the front/leading edge of
the it will have almost no moisture to lift and squeeze out as
rain. If there is a sprinkle or two on Tues night, it would be
along the NY border. The dryness will peak on Thursday with
dewpoints only 25-35F in the aftn. The wind could be fast/gusty
enough to create a worry for our fire-weather sensitive
partners. But, we`ll have a few days to look into those
conditions. It will also be dry/clear enough to cause
frost/freeze conditions for the SE, mainly on Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low cigs have developed across central PA in response to
increased low level moisture with northeast flow. Low level
wind shear is expected this morning, particularly across the
east and where gusts are not mixing down to the sfc. As mixing
increases by 15z, the threat for LLWS will subside. Wind gusts
up to 30 kts are expected around LNS.

Cigs have been LIFR for JST, AOO, and UNV, and generally IFR to
MVFR elsewhere. A band of rain showers continues to move
northwestward approaching BFD early this morning, and pulling
away from UNV and AOO. Cigs are expected to be on an improving
trend at sunrise and into the morning hours, with those sites
that are LIFR likely improving to MVFR. By late afternoon, there
could even be a few hours when MVFR cigs are confined to
MDT/LNS and VFR conditions are found elsewhere. This timeframe
will also be when the chance of rain is lowest.

Rain chances increase once again across the southeast Sun
evening and Sun night, peaking early Monday morning. Rain will
generally be light. Cigs will also lower to MVFR/IFR during this
timeframe.

Outlook...
Mon...Still breezy in NE flow with rain chances continuing
across the east.

Tue...A little less breezy as the wind switches to North and
skies begin to clear.

Wed...A chance for restrictions mainly early/north with cold
front, otherwise VFR and becoming breezy.

Thu...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Colbert/Bowen