883
FGUS74 KCRP 171454
ESFCRP

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
954 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Nueces River Basin in South Texas...

The Corpus Christi Texas National Weather Service office has
implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for
the Nueces River Basin in South Texas. AHPS enables the
National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic
outlooks. This service is also available on the internet.

In the table below...The 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days. Example: The Nueces River at Calallen has a
flood stage of 7 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Calallen
forecast point will rise above 4.9 feet during the next 90 days.

        Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations
                  Valid [             ]

LOCATION        FS(FT) 90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------        ------ ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
Aransas River
Skidmore         13.0  1.6  1.9  2.1  2.4  2.5  3.2  3.4  6.8  18.1

Atascosa River
Whitsett         20.0  1.7  1.7  1.7  1.7  2.6  7.4  13.4 18.7 21.6

Frio River
Tilden           22.0  2.1  2.1  2.2  3.0  3.9  5.2  7.2  8.6  14.6

San Miguel Creek
Tilden           21.0  4.6  4.6  4.6  4.8  5.9  6.3  8.0  9.4  13.3

Nueces River
Bluntzer         18.0  7.2  7.2  7.2  7.2  7.2  8.0  8.7  10.5 12.0
Calallen         7.0   4.9  4.9  4.9  4.9  4.9  5.3  5.5  5.8  6.5
Cotulla          15.0  4.4  4.4  4.4  4.4  4.8  5.1  5.6  6.7  10.9
Mathis           25.0  1.3  1.3  1.3  1.3  1.3  1.3  1.3  1.6  2.1
Three Rivers     25.0  1.2  1.4  1.6  2.1  3.1  7.2  9.6  14.1 22.5
Tilden           14.0  2.3  2.3  3.4  4.0  4.5  5.7  7.6  10.6 13.1

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
by providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...The
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
Internet at:
 https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=crp

Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.

$$