Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
525 FXUS64 KCRP 151806 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 106 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Low chances (15-25%) for isolated streamer showers moving onshore from the western Gulf along the Coastal Bend Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 We are looking at mostly clear conditions to persist through the overnight hours with the chance of patchy fog increasing for the inland Coastal Plains and towards the Victoria Crossroads. While that plays out, CAMs are also showing some streamer showers moving in from the open waters of the Gulf, so I bumped up PoPs to account for this (still generally ranging from 15-25%). These end by afternoon with the focus of shower activity switching to more southeast Texas Thursday night and into Friday morning. That`s the best we can do for rain in this forecast package. Looking at this weekend, there is some differences between the global models regarding how far south this "cold" front will make it. GFS wants to stall the front out in the northern-half of the CWA as it approaches overnight Saturday/Sunday. The ECMWF ensemble wants to give the front a bit more of momentum to clear the coast quicker. We`ll have a better idea in subsequent runs, but what will likely happen is that locations in the Victoria Crossroads and the northern Brush Country will see the biggest drops in dewpoint temps. This will allow min RH`s on Sunday afternoon to drop in the aforementioned regions as low as 20-30%. Normally this would elevate the fire risk, but weak winds will limit that threat. Temps will continue to run above-normal for this time of year with the Heat Risk reaching a Moderate risk at times. For those lucky enough to experience the frontal passage this weekend, will have a low to moderate chance (30-40%) of seeing a low temperature below 60F on Monday morning (mostly in Victoria County). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 After a mostly clear afternoon with E/SE`ly winds at near 10 kts, most of the area returns to mostly light and variable winds overnight. This will allow for prime radiational cooling, especially across the typical hotspots for fog such as KALI and KVCT. Around sunrise, streamer showers moves in from the western Gulf, leading to the inclusion of PROB30 for -RA. Most of this shower activity will diminish as it moves inland and cease by the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Onshore flow will generally be gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) through Sunday. Seas will generally be near 2 ft and increase to near 3 ft from Friday. A frontal passage nearing the coast on Sunday will allow for a brief opportunity for winds to be more out of the northeast on Sunday at moderate strength. Low rain chances begin from early Thursday morning (15-25%) and then increase to moderate chances (25-35%) on Friday. Low chances remain through the remainder of the forecast period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Minimum RH values will generally remain above 30% through most of the period and the ERC forecast will be at 70-90th percentile across the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country. A boundary moving into the area Sunday could bring low RH values in the Brush country for the day. However, a generally weak east to southeast wind should preclude any fire weather threats. Rain chances are very low throughout the period and generally remain under a wetting rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 69 87 70 89 / 10 20 0 10 Victoria 63 87 65 89 / 0 10 10 30 Laredo 67 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 64 90 66 93 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 73 87 73 88 / 10 10 10 20 Cotulla 66 92 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 65 88 67 91 / 0 10 0 10 Navy Corpus 75 85 76 86 / 10 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AE/82 AVIATION...AE/82