560
FXUS64 KCRP 081800
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1200 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 432 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Key Messages:

- Well below normal temperatures continue through Thursday

- High chances (70-95%) for rain return Thursday

- Low to medium chance for Coastal Flooding tonight through
  Thursday

With the cooler airmass expected to remain over the region through
the short term period, temperatures are expected to remain well
below the norm of the mid 60s for highs and low to upper 40s for
lows. However, a brief warm up could be in the cards for the Coastal
Bend (highs in the low to upper 50s) Thursday depending on the track
of the surface low in the Gulf. Apart from temperatures, moisture
will also increase with PWAT values increasing to around 1" Thursday
morning and 1.5-1.8" Thursday afternoon as the aforementioned
surface low moves north to northeast ward along the Texas coast.
This low pressure and increase in moisture will bring high end rain
chances (70-95%) back the region beginning Thursday afternoon.
Although the expected showers are expected to be more stratiform like
rather than convective, a low chance for heavy rain will be possible
across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads, therefore, the
Weather Prediction Center has highlighted that area for a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 4; at least a 5% chance of exceeding flash flood
guidance) Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

Thanks to a longshore current due to the strong northeast winds, the
rip current risk will remain low through tonight before increasing
to moderate Thursday with the return of onshore flow. While the rip
current risk will be on the lower end, the same cannot be said for
coastal flooding. Low chances for minor coastal flooding will begin
this afternoon as the strong northeast winds could promote Ekman
transport and push water towards the Middle Texas Coast. The coastal
flooding risk is expected to increase Thursday as strong onshore
flow returns, with the P-ETSS model showing water levels reaching as
high as 1.8-1.9 feet above mean sea level.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 432 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Key Messages:

- Below normal temperatures continue through this weekend
- High/very high rain chances Thursday/Thursday night
- Widespread freezing temperatures expected Friday night

A deepening mid-level low will bring a stout trough and a cold front
across the region early Saturday. Accompanied by early Saturday lows
around freezing across much of the CWA. This will be followed up by
general troughiness across the region. Meanwhile a surface low and
attendant inverted trough will slide up the coast through the
weekend resulting in high to very high (85-100%) chances for showers
Thursday night through Friday morning over South Texas. Rainfall
amounts are expected to range from around half an inch in the Laredo
area to upwards of 2 inches along the northern Coastal Bend. All
precipitation is expected to be in the form of rain with no winter
precipitation expected.

Activity will quickly taper off from west to east Friday, leaving
behind drier conditions. Should there be any lingering wet roads,
there will be potential for them to become icy and make for some
slick driving conditions in spots.

Another inverted trough early next week will result in low (<30%)
rain chances Tuesday. Best chances for showers remain over the
waters throughout the period.

Daily highs this forecast period will generally range in the 50s
each day except for mid 60s on Sunday. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 30s at the start of the period slowly warming to 40s by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected through about 10z/Thur at the soonest
(ALI/CRP) and 15z/Thur (COT/LRD) at the latest. VCT will start
with MVFR conditions around 12z. Then the rain begins to move into
South Texas, as the low pressure moves up the Middle Texas Coast
through the day. The main rain and IFR conditions look to settle
into the Coastal Bend around or just after 18z/Thurs and continue
through Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 432 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Strong northeast winds between 20-30 knots will continue through
early this afternoon before finally decreasing to under 20 knots
late this afternoon. The weak winds under 20 knots will be short
lived and winds are expected to shift from the northeast to the
southeast and increase to over 20 knots once again Thursday. Despite
the decrease in winds, there is a low to medium chance that the
Small Craft Advisory will continue through the evening hours due to
elevated wave heights around 7 feet. Low end rain chances will
increase to 30-50% tonight and jump to 90-97% Thursday. Strong
onshore flow quickly shifts northwest early Friday in response to
an approaching boundary. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
likely to persist through early Saturday. Flow becomes weak to
moderate and briefly shifts back onshore late this weekend before
veering northeast and becoming strong again in response to another
boundary early next week. There`s a high (near 100%) chance for
widespread showers over the waters Thursday night with low to
moderate (25-55%) chances for daily showers next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    47  39  50  38 /   0  30  90 100
Victoria          46  36  52  36 /   0  20 100 100
Laredo            45  39  44  39 /   0  10  80  90
Alice             46  36  44  37 /  10  30  90 100
Rockport          49  39  58  39 /   0  30 100 100
Cotulla           45  37  42  39 /   0  10  90  90
Kingsville        46  38  46  38 /  10  30  90 100
Navy Corpus       49  44  56  43 /  10  40  90 100

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ231-232-
     236-237.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ250-255-270-
     275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...JSL/86