128
FXUS64 KCRP 161726
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Key Messages:

- Thursday will be warm and breezy day, leading to near-critical
  fire conditions across the Brush Country

The upper-level ridge axis will move across Texas today, keeping
any sight (or mirage) of precipitation away from South Texas. This
will keep our temperatures generally in the low 80s along the
Coastal Plains/Victoria Crossroads, and into the upper 80s/low 90s
across the Brush Country. Tonight`s lows will generally be in the
60s. By Thursday, the ridge axis will move far enough to the east
to introduce SW`ly flow in the mid-levels, drying and warming the
850 hPa level out and mixing down, giving us a warmer Thursday
with highs climbing near 100F near Laredo and well into the 90s
across the Brush Country. Additionally, an enhanced pressure
gradient and LLJ will bring near 40 kt winds aloft, mixing down
at the surface on Thursday and giving us yet another breezy day
(gusting between 30-40 mph). That said, this will elevate the fire
condition risk on Thursday to near-critical conditions. Fire
headlines may be needed on Thursday, but at this time, winds are
looking to remain below thresholds for a wind headline.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Key Messages:

- Windy conditions Friday and Saturday with peak gusts over 35 mph
over portions of the Coastal Plains Friday afternoon and elevated
fire weather concerns over the Rio Grande Plains.

- Low-medium chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening
through Sunday with best chances over northern areas.

The synoptic pattern at the start of the extended period will be
characterized by positively-titled longwave troughing over the
western CONUS with ridging over the eastern US. At the surface, the
presence of the western US trough will support lee cyclogenesis in
the vicinity of eastern New Mexico on Friday. Given this setup
expect winds to be the main story on Friday due to 40kt SWrly winds
progged at 850mb and a fairly tight surface gradient between the
developing low and high pressure over the eastern US. Peak gusts to
at least 35 mph are likely over portions of the coastal Plains with
a medium chance of gusts exceeding 40mph at some of the windier
locations. Beyond the winds it should be a hot day outside of the
immediate coast (as winds will favor a S-SE direction) with western
areas making a run at 100 degrees.

The mid-lvl trough will lift N-NE over the upcoming weekend, with
the surface low/frontal boundary gradually shifting east towards the
area. Guidance currently favors a splitting solution where two
distinct lows form on the frontal boundary with the southern low
weakening as it dives into the south Texas well displaced from its
upper-lvl support. Consequently forecast PoPs/QPF are not overly
impressive with the approach of the low/front Saturday PM into
Sunday with PoPs only in the 20-40% range (highest north) and QPF of
only a few hundredths. There are some more aggressive (quicker and
better phased) solutions, such as the latest deterministic GFS but
the consensus currently implies we will be too far south to see much
precipitation with the frontal passage. Heading into next week, the
forecast will largely hinge upon on how close the diffuse boundary
remains to our area, with the potential for rain chances to linger
if the boundary stalls near us. Temperatures should run slightly
above normal through the period, which translates to highs in the
mid to upper 80s over the Coastal Plains and lower 90s over the
Brush country.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions and southeasterly winds of 15-20 knots will
prevail through this afternoon, dropping to near 10-15 knots
overnight tonight and into Thursday morning. Patchy fog late
tonight and into the morning hours will briefly reduce flight
categories down to MVFR levels, primarily affecting KVCT, KCRP,
and KALI. CIGs and VSBYs return to VFR by mid-morning as
southeasterly winds strengthen due to a 40 knot LLJ overhead.
Expect sustained winds around 15-25 knots with gusts up to 30-35
knots by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

10-15 kt southeasterly winds and near 2 ft seas this afternoon
will increase to 15-20 kt onshore winds and 2-4 ft seas tonight.
Thursday, onshore winds increase to fresh to strong strength,
leading to choppy conditions in the bays, with seas increasing to
4-5 ft across the western Gulf. Fresh to strong southeasterly
winds will persist Friday into Saturday with seas generally 5-7 ft
over the Gulf waters. Winds will weaken into the gentle- moderate
range Sunday behind a weak frontal boundary with gentle- moderate
E-SE winds persisting into the new week. There will be a 25-40%
chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday with highest chances
over the northern waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Today, fire weather conditions will be elevated with min RH`s
bottoming out near 30%. This evening, winds above the boundary
layer become more SW`ly, decreasing mid-level moisture and then
mixing down this drier air on Thursday. Min RH`s on Thursday
afternoon generally between 20-30% across the Rio Grande Plains
and the Brush Country. Energy Release Components on Thursday end
up in the between the 50th-80th percentile class. The Hot Dry
Windy Index (HDWI) shows most GEFS members climbing into the
75th-90th percentile Thursday afternoon. In addition with 20 ft
winds maxing out near 25 mph, this will lead to near-
critical/critical fire conditions on Thursday. Friday, similar
conditions continue, with some min RH improvement across the
eastern Brush Country.

Generally elevated fire weather conditions will persist through
early next week over the western Brush country as minimum RHs remain
25-30% and Energy Release Components are forecasted to be in the 70-
90th Percentile range. Near critical conditions can be expected
Friday and Saturday with 20 ft winds approaching 20 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    67  87  70  86 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          64  86  69  87 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            68  99  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             64  93  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          70  82  72  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           64  97  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        65  90  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       70  80  72  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AE/82
LONG TERM....NC/91
AVIATION...KRS/98