Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
448 FXUS64 KCRP 211122 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 622 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 620 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - Moderate to high (50-70%) chance for showers/storms Thursday through Saturday - Marginal risk of excessive rainfall Thursday. . && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Forecast remains pretty well in line with rain chances increasing the next couple of days as a few things line up. A persistent mid- level ridge remains anchored over the four-corners region through Saturday allowing weak disturbances to round the periphery and over South Texas. A weak surface boundary will sag into the region Thursday and stall, working (along with the daily sea breeze boundary) as a good focus for convection to develop. Additionally, a very moisture rich airmass will be moving in, with PWAT values near 2 inches just to the north and east of us at this time. As far as the expected evolution of convection, most of the 00Z meso models are in good agreement with convection moving south out of the Hill Country associated with the surface boundary, reaching into the Rio Grande Plains by around mid-day. While most of the activity should be unorganized, there is some indication for some line segments as it progresses east and southeastward through the afternoon with an uptick in activity likely as it meets the sea breeze somewhere in the Coastal Plains or eastern Brush Country. While overall rainfall totals tomorrow will not be especially high, the PWAT levels (nearing 90% of climo)suggest rainfall rates will be fairly high so some longer lasting showers/storms could bring higher rainfall amounts. The entire area is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, mainly due to rainfall rates. The lingering boundary and deep moisture will keep medium to high rain chances especially in the coastal plains through Saturday with lower chances lingering into Sunday. Overnight periods should feature lull`s in activity, but not necessarily dry conditions. Storm total rainfall through the weekend could be as high as an inch, with the best highest probs in the Victoria Crossroads. Sunday into early next week we`ll see a pattern change as the mid- level ridge shifts east and southeast and sets up overhead. This will lower rain chances across the area and allow temperatures that will take a dip Friday-Sunday to gradually increase once again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Only minor changes were required this morning with mostly VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF cycle at area terminals. However, a passing mid level disturbance and a weak surface boundary will continue to provide the focus for showers and storms to develop throughout the day leading to aviation restrictions at times. The highest convective chances will reside over COT/VCT terminals between 18Z today and 03Z Friday, therefore have maintained VCTS mentions. The activity will wane past 04Z Friday, but there is a 20-30% chance of showers lingering into the late evening hours before ramping up again early Friday morning. Winds will remain light and variable through mid morning today, before shifting to the north and northeast later in the day and strengthening to around 10 knots. Stronger gusts cannot be ruled out accompanying any thunderstorm that does affect the sites. Winds will become light and variable again tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 A variable light to gentle breeze (BF 2-3) is expected to prevail through early next week. Rain chances increase to moderate to high Thursday through Saturday with lingering showers/storms Sunday. Drier conditions are expected early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 76 95 76 / 40 40 60 40 Victoria 96 74 93 73 / 70 60 70 40 Laredo 102 77 98 78 / 50 40 70 50 Alice 99 74 97 73 / 50 40 70 40 Rockport 94 77 93 77 / 40 50 60 50 Cotulla 96 76 96 76 / 60 40 70 40 Kingsville 98 74 96 75 / 40 30 60 40 Navy Corpus 91 80 91 80 / 30 40 50 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...ANM/88