191
FXUS64 KCRP 042318
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
518 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 311 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Key Messages:

- Cold front Thursday morning

- Rain chances return Thursday night

Rain chances will continue to taper off tonight with only slim
chances (less than 10%) for rain tonight. Our next cold front is
expected to sweep across the region early tomorrow morning which
will aid us in remaining dry tomorrow. With the cold front expected
to on the weaker end, models are showing another inverted trough
developing Thursday night bringing low to medium rain chances (20-
55%) back into the forecast. Similarly to the past couple of days,
although rain chances are relatively on the higher end, significant
rain totals are not expected with accumulations generally under
0.25" expected across South Texas. As for temperatures, seasonal
temperatures are expected tomorrow and tomorrow night with the
passage of the cold front and the added cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Key Messages:

- Medium to high (30-60%) rain chances expected Friday through Sunday.

- Strong cold front expected by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

A mid level low will remain parked over northern Mexico through the
weekend. Embedded short waves are progged to move northeast across S
TX and interact with deep moisture and a surface trough, bringing a
medium to high (30-60%) chance of mainly showers through the
weekend. The chance of thunderstorms will be on the lower end at 10-
30% due to lack of instability. The higher rain chances shift to the
northeast through the weekend as the upper low slowly moves
northeast across the region. Rain chances diminish by Monday as the
upper low exits the area ahead of the next system. Drier mid/upper
level air is forecast to filter across S TX Monday and Tuesday, but
sufficient moisture still looks to be in place along the coast for a
slight chance of rain ahead of the next cold front next Tuesday or
Wednesday. Models differ by 12-18 hours in timing of the next cold
front, but given the strength of the colder airmass, the faster
solutions look more reasonable for a Tuesday FROPA.

Rainfall totals Friday through Monday are expected to range from
0.50 inches across the Rio Grande Plains to around 1.5 inches across
the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. At this time, widespread
flooding is not anticipated, but higher rainfall rates with any
thunderstorms that may develop, could lead to localized flooding of
low lying areas and urban areas.

Below normal temperatures Friday will gradually warm to near normal
by Sunday and above normal by Monday ahead of the next cold front.
Highs by Monday are expected to be around 80 degrees. Cooler temps
can be expected behind the cold front Tue/Wed with highs in the 60s
and lows ranging from 35-45 degrees.

A moderate to strong northeast flow across the coastal waters on
Friday may lead to minor coastal flooding and/or high rip current
risk Friday into Friday night. At this time, confidence is low (10-
30%) of this happening due to normal high tide levels being are
around 0.5ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Although there is a medium chance of VFR conditions this evening,
cigs should drop down to MVFR and potentially even IFR by late
tonight into Thursday morning. Little improvement in flight
categories is expected during the day on Thursday. Light and
variable winds will shift northerly late tonight and increase in
speeds by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Winds should continue decreasing this evening into tonight as winds
continue to gradually veer. Moderate (15-20 knots) northeast winds
are expected to redevelop tomorrow morning in the wake of the front
with strong winds (20-25 knots) developing tomorrow afternoon into
tomorrow night. Despite winds dropping below Small Craft Advisory
levels this afternoon and evening, the advisory is expected to
remain in effect due to a lag in the decrease of wave heights. A
moderate to strong northeast flow is expected Friday, then will
decrease to weak to moderate levels by Friday night and Saturday
as winds veer to the east and southeast. A light southerly flow is
expected Sunday and Monday. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible over the weekend, then rain chances
decrease from west to east Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    62  71  55  64 /  10  10  20  30
Victoria          56  69  45  59 /  10   0  10  20
Laredo            56  70  54  62 /   0  10  70  60
Alice             59  71  52  62 /   0  10  30  40
Rockport          60  70  53  63 /  10  10  20  30
Cotulla           57  69  51  58 /   0  10  30  50
Kingsville        61  71  55  65 /   0  10  40  40
Navy Corpus       64  69  60  67 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CST this evening for GMZ250-255.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...NC/91