029
FXUS64 KCRP 061118
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
618 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Key Messages:

- Chilly temperatures through Monday

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible Monday

Chilly temperatures are expected today under mostly cloudy skies in
the morning becoming partly cloudy this afternoon. As high pressure
builds into the region tonight into tomorrow, any cloud cover is
expected to move out of the area resulting in clear skies and
slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow. As for Sunday night,
temperatures are expected to drop into the lower to upper 40s.

Although strong northerly winds have developed in the wake of the
front, E to ESE swells of 5 feet with 10 second periods have
warranted the continuation of a moderate risk of rip currents.
Contemplated issuing another Coastal Flood Advisory due to the
continued elevated swells, but with gauges around the area showing
water levels much lower than the last couple of days decided to hold
off at this time and defer to the day shift when webcams can be
utilized to see any impacts, if any.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Key Messages:

- Elevated to Critical Fire Weather conditions Monday through the
end of the week (See Fire Weather Discussion for more information)

The long term is continuing to remain on track with what`s been
previously forecasted. Expect dry conditions through the entirety of
the long term. In spite of the ridge over the region, some passing
upper level disturbances are expected to pass through the area
though no precipitation will be expected due to low moisture. The
cooler temperatures will last one more day before onshore flow
ushers back in the warmer air Wednesday. A gradual warming trend
will persist through the remainder of the long term with highs
topping out in the 80s and 90s each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle. Winds will
remain gusty this morning and afternoon with wind gusts to 26-32
knots. Winds should begin to gradually decrease around 20z and
get under 12 knot by 01/02z this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Strong to near gale (BF 6-7) northerly winds will continue this
morning relaxing to stronger levels (BF 6) late this morning and
fresh to strong (BF 5-6) this afternoon through tonight. For
tomorrow, weaker winds will yield a more moderate to fresh (BF 4-5)
flow. Moderate to gentle levels (BF 3-4) Monday night will
transition to light to gentle breeze by Tuesday morning. This will
then persist through mid week (BF 2-3). Moderate flow will
develop by Thursday briefly before returning to light to gentle
breeze. Rain chances will remain near zero Sunday through the end
of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

There is a low chance for elevated fire weather conditions today
across the Brush Country with a higher chance for elevated fire
weather conditions tomorrow across most of South Texas. For today,
relative humidity values as low as 26-34% are expected across the
Brush Country with winds near 20 mph and gusts to 25 mph. The
limiting factor for elevated fire weather conditions are the
moderate Energy Release Component (ERC) values. Although winds
tomorrow will be light under 15 mph, relative humidity values as low
as 15-20% across the Brush Country and 20-30% across the Coastal
Plains and Victoria Crossroads will interact with high ERC values in
the 65-75th percentile to yield a higher chance for elevated fire
weather conditions. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions
will return tomorrow and continue daily through the end of the
week. Relative humidity values will drop to around 15-25% range
across the Brush Country during the afternoons Sunday through
Thursday, and to the 25-35% range across the Coastal Plains Monday
and Tuesday. This will coincide with higher Energy Release
Component (ERC) values with the Texas A&M Forest Service
forecasting ERC values to be in the 70-80th percentile Monday,
before an expansion eastward on Tuesday. This will lead to
elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the Brush
Country Sunday through Saturday, and across the Coastal Plains
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    68  47  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          66  41  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            69  48  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             69  44  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          70  51  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           70  46  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        68  46  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       68  53  72  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...JCP/84