843
FXUS64 KCRP 162335
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
635 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts

- Moderate risk of rip currents through Saturday

- Borderline elevated fire weather conditions over Rio Grande Plains

Not much to talk about in the short term with a mid-level high
pressure centered over the western Gulf and eastern Mexico. A mid-
level shortwave looks to move across TX Saturday accompanied by a
surface frontal boundary to our north and an approaching dryline to
our west, thereby increasing rain chances particularly NW of our
region. Confidence that either the sw or boundaries will make it to
South Texas is low, with most deterministic models leaning towards a
dry/settled forecast and the GFS being a slightly more aggressive
solution. Have decided to stick with the NBM for PoPs as there`s a
very low <10% chance for showers/thunderstorms over northwestern
counties and near zero probabilities further east.

Ridging combined with southwesterly flow aloft will help to
contribute to warmer temperatures. The latest run of the HREF Grand
Ensemble still shows a low to medium (20-40%) chance of heat index
values 110 or greater this afternoon over portions of the western
Brush Country (Cotulla) and southern Coastal Plains
(Kingsville/Alice). However, with observations compared to
forecasted temperatures so far today being within a degree or two
for the most part have opted to forego any heat-related products and
instead will continue to monitor conditions. surface temperatures
today are forecast to max out in the low 90s to around 105 across
the region will be slightly cooler tomorrow afternoon. Accompanied
by overnight lows in the mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Key Messages:

- Summer-like temperatures continue through Tuesday, with a Heat
Risk approaching the Major/Extreme Categories across the Brush
Country.

- A frontal passage on Tuesday will reduce the heat risk.

Upper ridge influence continues to bring summer-like temperatures
across South Texas Tuesday. Combined with Gulf-rich moisture, heat
indices have a high-likelihood of remaining above 105F across much
of South Texas. Across the western Brush Country and along the Rio
Grande, a dry line passage will lower minimum relative humidity
ranges to 10-20% range, resulting in an elevated fire risk Monday
afternoon.

By Tuesday, an upper level trough over the Intermountain West will
begin lifting as it moves into the Central Plains. At the surface,
this translates to a frontal passage throughout Central and South
Texas, switching winds from southerly to N/NE`ly. Ensemble models
continue to place the southern extent of >20% PoPs from Central
Texas, and to the north, Tuesday through Wednesday. The next best
chance for rain is actually located more along a lee trough forming
along the Sierra Madre Oriental. As of this forecast, this still
keeps most of South Texas under 15% PoPs, so confidence for
Wednesday-Friday rainfall is low.

Post front Wednesday still brings highs at or above 100F across the
Rio Grande Plains/Brush Country through the upcoming weekend.
Elsewhere, highs will remains in the 90s except along the immediate
coastline.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Current VFR conditions are forecast to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR
levels by early Saturday morning due to low ceilings and patchy
fog development. Poor aviation conditions will then persist
through the mid to late morning hours, before lifting back to VFR
in the afternoon. Winds will remain breezy for a couple more hours
this evening, before becoming light overnight. Breezy conditions
will return to the forecast by Saturday afternoon with gusts to
20-25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Moderate to fresh onshore flow with 4-5 ft seas will persist through
Monday morning, with bays and nearshore waters having strong (BF 5)
wind gusts Monday afternoon along with seas increasing to 5-6 ft.
Tuesday, winds will become more gentle longshore flow from the
northeast through Thursday with seas decreasing through Friday
down to 3-4 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  91  78  90 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          75  92  76  92 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            79 105  79 104 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             76  98  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          78  88  79  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           79 105  78 104 /  10  10  10   0
Kingsville        77  95  77  95 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       79  86  79  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF/80
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...ANM/88