Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
729 FXUS64 KCRP 060003 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 703 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 657 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - Low 10-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, then a 5- 20% chance the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Higher chances across the Coastal Waters. - Generally minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts across South Texas throughout the week. - Elevated fire weather conditions Thursday through Saturday across the western Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 South Texas is currently sandwiched between two mid level high pressure systems, with a trough axis generally along the Texas Coastline. The trough is progged to shift slightly west across the Coastal Bend late this afternoon, then shift southwest as the high pressure builds across the region from the northwest through the day Wednesday. Initially, deeper moisture (PWAT around 2.0 inches) will advect northward across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads late tonight into early Wednesday morning bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Coastal Waters, along the Coastal line and eastern Victoria Crossroads Wednesday morning. The convection is forecast to shift inland along the sea breeze through Wednesday afternoon. However, the chances will be low (10-30%) due to the mid level high building across the area. PWATs drop to around 1.5-1.7 inches Wednesday night and Thursday as drier air moves across the region, decreasing rain chances down to 5-20% by Thursday. A low chance will continue through the period with a few showers or thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze each afternoon. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the week. Heat indices will generally be 100-109 each afternoon with a minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts. A few areas across the Brush Country could briefly reach around 110 Wednesday through Friday leading to a major risk for a few locations. Minimum RH values are expected to be 20-30 percent across the Rio Grande Plains and western Brush Country each afternoon Thursday through Saturday. This may lead to elevated fire weather conditions, if winds are slightly higher than anticipated. However, winds are expected to remain below thresholds. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 657 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 A few showers and storms continue to develop along outflow boundaries and the sea breeze around VCT and the Rio Grande Plains this evening. Activity will likely diminish quickly within the next couple hours. Outside of these outflows, light winds are expected with gusts to around 20 knots returning tomorrow afternoon over the coastal sites (ALI/CRP/VCT). The light winds and higher dewpoints do warrant at least a TEMPO MVFR vsby mention for the inland Coastal Plains, impacting VCT/ALI between 09-13Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 A mainly light to gentle (BF 2-3) southeasterly flow is expected to continue through this weekend. There is 20-40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, and 10-20 percent the rest of the week and into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 94 77 95 / 10 20 10 10 Victoria 74 94 74 97 / 10 30 10 20 Laredo 79 102 78 104 / 20 10 0 0 Alice 74 97 74 100 / 10 20 10 10 Rockport 80 92 80 92 / 10 20 10 10 Cotulla 77 101 78 103 / 20 10 0 10 Kingsville 75 94 74 97 / 10 20 10 10 Navy Corpus 81 90 82 91 / 10 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...EMF/94