688
FXUS64 KCRP 121150
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
650 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

- Elevated Fire Risk today and Thursday over South Texas (see fire
  weather section below).
- Today, High chance for 100F in the Brush Country, and especially
  on the Rio Grande Plains.

The flat ridge of yesterday is in the process of breaking down over
the Southern Plains with a sfc ridge over the Gulf. We continue the
return flow with winds south to southwest over the region. Our
temperatures bounce up so that the Brush Country is around 100F
especially along the Rio Grande Plains. The chances for getting
above 100 are 50-80% in the rest of the Brush Country. The dry
line/cold front moves through the region this afternoon/evening. So
temperatures drop a few degrees (this is a really weak front)for
Thursday as the highs over South Texas range from the mid 80s along
the Coastal Bend to the the mid 90s over all of the Brush Country.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Key Messages:

- Elevated to Critical Fire Weather Conditions late this week

- Well above normal (15-20 degrees above normal) Friday

- Near zero rain chances through early next week

Well above normal temperatures will continue Friday with high
temperatures flirting with the 100 degree mark. A dryline is
expected to swing across most of the region Friday afternoon,
followed by a cold front sometime Friday night into Saturday,
which will reinforce the dry air in its wake. Without much cold
air advection in the wake of this front, temperatures will only
drop to seasonal normals, bringing highs back down to the 70s and
80s with overnight lows in the upper 40s to 50s. Rain will also
be absent from the long term forecast with near zero chances for
rain daily.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025


An area of low clouds and fog has developed near BEA, and is
building toward ALI. Winds at most sites this morning are above 5
knots, so very few places will probably have any MVFR VSBYs. Put a
tempo group in at ALI based on the cloud/fog deck moving in.
However, for CRP and VCT will allow for low clouds through 15z,
then as the mixing takes over, VFR conditions through 06z/Thu.
A cold front is expected to move into the western sites (COT/LRD)
with stronger winds and hour to hour wind shifts, starting around
18z-20z. After 00z/Thu, the winds will diminish as high pressure
builds in, and diminish to be light enough to radiate and produce
fog. Have trended VSBYs to IFR, but LIFR is not out of the
question.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Small craft exercise caution conditions are expected during the
afternoon, mainly out past 20 nautical miles. Winds will diminish
overnight to become light and variable (<10 knots) by Thursday
morning. Winds will become southerly Thursday afternoon and remain a
light to gentle breeze. Moderate to strong southerly flow between
15-20 knots will develop Thursday night and continue Friday
ahead of our next front. The front is expected to swing across the
region Friday night into Saturday shifting our winds to the north
sometime Saturday morning. Moderate north winds around 15 knots
will continue through the evening hours before decreasing to under
10 knots before shifting back to the east Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

It looks like we will require a Rangeland Fire Danger statement
today and Thursday. For today, a dryline moves into the Brush
Country and drops the minimum RH values to 5-15% for much of the
Brush Country during the afternoon, and 15-30% for some of the
Coastal Plains. Fuels will remain very dry, causing the ERC (energy
release component) values to go above the 80th percentile. The 20-
foot winds, however, remain around or less than 15 MPH, keeping the
fire danger elevated through the afternoon. Tonight, the Brush
Country will have poor recovery as the maximum relative humidity
will be 30 to 45%, while it will be good along the Coastal Bend with
70 to 100% maximum relative humidity. Thursday, the dry air remains
over all of South Texas with the minimum relative humidity ranging
from 10% along the Rio Grande to 25% along the Coastal Bend (the
islands will be in the 40 to 50% range), however, the 20 ft winds
will be at or under 10 mph during the day, so another Rangeland Fire
Danger statement will be needed for Thursday as well.

With a dryline expected to move across most of the region Friday
ahead of our next front, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions are expected Friday as the Texas A&M Forest Service (TFS)
is forecasting Energy Release Component (ERC) values near the 90th
percentile. Along with the elevated ERC values Friday, relative
humidity values in the wake of the dryline are expected to drop as
low as 7-20% across most of the region, therefore, there is a high
chance a Fire Weather Watch might be needed soon for Friday. The
only question mark at this time is how far east the dryline will get
and so, how far east does the relative humidity values drop below
critical thresholds. As we head into the weekend, ERC values are
expected to rise above the 97th percentile and above the
historical max for this time of the year combined with critical
relative humidity values in the teens with moderate winds. The
combination of all these factors will yield a high chance for
critical fire weather this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    87  57  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          86  55  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            99  57  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             94  54  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          79  62  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           99  54  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        91  57  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       76  61  80  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...JSL/86