535
FXUS64 KCRP 171104
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
604 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Key Messages:

- Generally a minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts Today
and Thursday.

- Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Victoria
Crossroads today through Thursday.

South Texas continues to be sandwiched between to mid level high
pressure systems. Models indicate that moisture will increase across
the eastern portions of S TX today with PWATs up to 2.0 inches.
Current radar shows isolated streamer showers moving northward
across the Coastal Waters this morning. The increase in moisture
combined with an unstable airmass will lead to a slightly more
active sea breeze today. There is a low to medium (20-30%) chance of
showers and thunderstorms across the Victoria Crossroads by this
afternoon. This is where the models indicate the strongest low level
convergence and highest CAPE values.

By Thursday, PWATs are progged to increase to 2.2 inches across the
Victoria Crossroads. In addition, a mid level long wave trough is
forecast to dig across the Plains and into Texas, bringing a frontal
boundary southward into central and east TX. This will lead to
strong low level moisture convergence across the northeastern CWA.
Thus, chances for convection are slightly better Thursday afternoon,
but still in the low to medium (20-40%) range.

Highs will remain near seasonal norms, however, with humid
conditions the Heat Index is expected to range from 105-109 each
afternoon. A few locations may briefly reach a heat index of 110,
but not long enough nor widespread enough to warrant Heat Advisories
at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts for the week

- Rain chances increase late this weekend into next week

A slightly move active upper level pattern will influence the region
late this week as upper level ridging retreats west and a trough
dives south. A cold front will be sent south across the state but
looks to stall to our north. Plentiful moisture will pool ahead of
the boundary with PWATs recovering to around 2" on Friday. The
combination of this ample moisture, a series of shortwave rotating
around the southern periphery of the trough, and increased low level
convergence will promote low to moderate chances for showers and
storms daily through the weekend. The greatest chances will
generally be east of Highway 281 through Sunday.

Rain chances spread further west early next week as an inverted
trough takes shapes across the region. At the same time, a H5
shortwave will dive south, providing some upper level support.
Therefore, we will hold onto moderate rain chances early next week.

Increased cloud cover and rain chances will keep highs generally in
the low 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat indices from the 105-109
range will lead to a moderate risk for heat-related impacts through
the long term. A few spots may briefly reach 100, generally across
the Coastal Bend, each afternoon. However, it will likely not be for
a long enough time to warrant a Heat Advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Clouds across S TX this morning are mostly at VFR levels, but
there are some that are at MVFR levels, mainly across the southern
portions of the Brush Country to the southern Coastal Bend. Thus,
have included a TEMPO group to address brief MVFR conditions this
morning for LRD, ALI, and CRP. There is a low to medium (20-30%)
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the VCT area, mainly
for this afternoon. Although, a few weak showers may be possible
this morning. Radar is also indicating very light precip moving
toward LRD, but doubt any precip is reaching the ground. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail across S TX today through most of
tonight. MVFR conditions may be possible once again toward the
tail end of the TAF period.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue today through
Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
today through Thursday. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected
with low to medium rain chances through Sunday. Rain chances look
to increase a bit early next week as an inverted trough develops
along the Middle Texas coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  78  95  77 /  10  10  10  10
Victoria          94  75  94  75 /  30  10  40  30
Laredo            99  77 100  78 /  10  10  10  10
Alice             97  75  98  75 /  20  10  10   0
Rockport          93  80  93  79 /  20  10  10  10
Cotulla          101  77 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        96  76  96  76 /  20  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       91  81  91  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...TE/81