Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
685 FXUS64 KCRP 032346 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 646 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 638 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Increased rain chances to 30-40% across the Coastal Plains Friday night - Daily low rain chances into the middle of next week - Minor to moderate heat risk daily with max heat indices 100-110 degrees && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Biggest notable change in the forecast is increasing rain chances over the Coastal Plains Friday afternoon through Friday night, posing a greater impact risk for firework shows. Latest CAM guidance has trended towards a more favorable environment for convection due to well-above normal moisture (>75th percentile) and mid-level shortwave inducing PVA. Therefore, have raised less than 10% chances from the previous forecast to 30-40% Friday evening this package. Not nearly as confident with the thunderstorm potential. Low rain chances will continue through this weekend and into the middle of next week as a mid-level low over the northern Gulf Coast advects west- southwestward towards the Texas Coast. In addition to rain chances, max heat indices will range from 100-110 daily, resulting in a minor to moderate heat risk. Please stay safe this Independence Day, drink plenty of water, and bring an umbrella just in case. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Current VFR conditions across South Texas expected to continue into the overnight hours. Have mainly MVFR conditions starting around 06-09Z through tomorrow morning except for COT where IFR ceilings are looking more likely, so have added a TEMPO group for that. Isolated to scattered showers have been included for tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours accompanied VFR conditions and southeasterly winds gusting to around 20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly winds will persist through Sunday with seas decreasing from 3 to 2 ft. Winds will still be onshore at gentle strength with nearshore waters and bays seeing brief periods of moderate breezes in the afternoon through mid week. Scattered showers Friday night will transition to daily low rain chances through the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 91 78 90 / 10 20 40 20 Victoria 77 90 76 91 / 20 30 40 20 Laredo 77 96 77 95 / 10 0 30 10 Alice 75 93 75 92 / 10 10 20 20 Rockport 81 89 81 89 / 10 30 40 20 Cotulla 77 94 78 94 / 20 20 20 20 Kingsville 77 91 76 90 / 10 10 30 20 Navy Corpus 81 88 81 88 / 10 20 40 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...BF/80