Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
308 FXUS64 KCRP 251100 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 500 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 450 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 - Cold front shower activity (30-40% chance) will graze the Victoria Crossroads the remainder of tonight. - Patchy fog develops across the Coastal Plains early Tuesday morning. - A stronger cold front should push through by midweek, bringing noticeably cooler and drier conditions just in time for Thanksgiving.&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 450 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 A cold front stretched along the Coastal Bend this evening continues to trigger showers across portions of the Victoria Crossroads, with the more robust convection remaining northeast of the region. With the front stalled across the coast, surface winds have begun to weaken. This setup will likely favor the development of fog late tonight into early Tuesday across the Coastal Plains. Conditions will continue to be monitored if a dense fog advisory will need to be issued. Attention then turns to a secondary, stronger front expected to move through the region overnight Tuesday into the morning hours Wednesday. The position of the stalled boundary ahead of this reinforcing surge will play a key role in determining where Tuesday evening convection develops. CAMs have backed off on overall precipitation coverage, however, a moist and unstable airmass south of the stalled front will still support low (20-30%) shower and thunderstorm potential for our southernmost counties. The limited overlap of forcing and instability will only support a few organized updrafts capable of brief heavy rainfall and isolated gusty winds. Once the second front sweeps through, noticeably drier and cooler air will filter in. High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are expected to settle into the 70s area-wide, with Thursday morning lows dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s. The next opportunity for rainfall arrives over the weekend thanks to increasing moisture and an approaching upper-level disturbance. For now, PoPs remain low (20-30%) given the uncertainty, through trends suggest the best chances may develop over the eastern half of the CWA where deeper moisture returns first. Forecast refinements will be made as guidance comes into better agreement. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1204 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 A cold front stretched along the Coastal Bend this evening continues to trigger showers across portions of the Victoria Crossroads, with the more robust convection remaining northeast of the region. With the front stalled across the coast, surface winds have begun to weaken. This setup will likely favor the development of fog late tonight into early Tuesday across the Coastal Plains. Conditions will continue to be monitored if a dense fog advisory will need to be issued. Attention then turns to a secondary, stronger front expected to move through the region overnight Tuesday into the morning hours Wednesday. The position of the stalled boundary ahead of this reinforcing surge will play a key role in determining where Tuesday evening convection develops. CAMs have backed off on overall precipitation coverage, however, a moist and unstable airmass south of the stalled front will still support low (20-30%) shower and thunderstorm potential for our southernmost counties. The limited overlap of forcing and instability will only support a few organized updrafts capable of brief heavy rainfall and isolated gusty winds. Once the second front sweeps through, noticeably drier and cooler air will filter in. High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are expected to settle into the 70s area-wide, with Thursday morning lows dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s. The next opportunity for rainfall arrives over the weekend thanks to increasing moisture and an approaching upper-level disturbance. For now, PoPs remain low (20-30%) given the uncertainty, through trends suggest the best chances may develop over the eastern half of the CWA where deeper moisture returns first. Forecast refinements will be made as guidance comes into better agreement. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions prevail this morning with periods of IFR/LIFR visibility for ALI and VCT. VFR conditions are then expected to develop between 15Z and 16Z and continue through the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1204 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Rain chances will taper off tonight before low rain chances return tomorrow and Wednesday. Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southerly winds will persist the remainder of the night before easing up on Tuesday, becoming light to gentle (BF 2-3), before a strong front moves offshore midweek. Behind this front, winds will shift to the north- northeast and strengthen back to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) with intermittent strong (BF 6) gusts. This pattern is expected to hold through Friday, after which onshore flow returns. Confidence decreases heading into the weekend, but increasing moisture associated with the renewed onshore flow and an approaching upper- level disturbance may bring the next chance for rain along with fresh to strong (BF 5-6) southeasterly winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1204 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the next couple of days across our southernmost zones, though rainfall totals should remain light. Behind a cold frontal passage midweek, minimum relative humidity values are expected to fall around 20-35% across portions of the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains. However, Energy Release Component (ERC) values in the 25-50th percentile combined with lighter post-frontal winds should keep fire weather concerns at bay. This drop will be short-lived as minimum relative humidity values across the region will hold above 40% through the remainder of the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 85 60 72 52 / 10 20 10 0 Victoria 85 52 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 87 61 72 54 / 10 20 10 0 Alice 87 58 73 47 / 10 20 10 0 Rockport 84 60 74 54 / 0 10 10 0 Cotulla 87 56 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 87 60 72 51 / 10 20 10 0 Navy Corpus 82 65 71 60 / 10 20 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...LS/77