Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
703 FXUS64 KCRP 071116 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 616 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 A mid- to upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature across South Texas this weekend, promoting strong subsidence that will limit vertical motion and significantly reduce the potential for convection. While an isolated shower or two cannot be completely ruled out this afternoon near the coast, chances remain very low (less than 15%). Additionally, the Saharan dust plume that arrived yesterday will further suppress rainfall and contribute to hazy conditions. Reduced visibilities of 5-6 miles are expected to persist throughout the day today. The ridge will also continue to support hot conditions across the region through early next week. Temperatures will run 3-8 degrees above normal, with 850 mb temperatures between 20-25 degC contributing to widespread afternoon highs in the triple digits west of the I-37 corridor and the 90s across the remainder of South Texas. South-southeasterly surface flow will continue to usher in low-level moisture, further elevating heat stress. Heat index values are forecast to reach 110-117 degF, leading to a Major to Extreme risk for heat related impacts. As for our risk today, a few isolated locations in portions of the Brush Country may briefly approach the threshold for a Heat Advisory. However, widespread criteria are not expected as the presence of the aforementioned Saharan dust may keep actual temperatures slightly lower than model projections. While I have opted to not issue an Advisory today, confidence is increasing for more widespread heat impacts on Sunday and Monday. Regardless of Advisory status/issuance, please continue to practice heat safety: stay hydrated, limit time outdoors, avoid strenuous activity during peak heating hours, and always check vehicles for children and pets! Heading into early next week, the upper ridge is forecast to shift westward, allowing weak mid-level disturbances to pass across the region. This shift in the upper-level pattern, coupled with rising moisture will lead to low-to-medium (20-60%) rain chances beginning late Tuesday through much of the next work week. Probabilities are highest across the Victoria Crossroads where moisture and lift will be more favorable, with more limited activity expected along the Rio Grande due to the close proximity of the retreating ridge. The highest probability of rainfall potential is forecast Wednesday. By late week, rain chances gradually taper off as the upper-trough slowly propagates eastward. Increased cloud cover and any rainfall that occurs throughout the week, will help moderate daytime temperatures slightly, with highs dropping into the 90s areawide Wednesday-Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Typical diurnal pattern will persist through this period with SCT to BKN low clouds in the morning giving way to VFR conditions through the late morning and afternoon. Breezy southeasterly winds develop as well. Overnight expect MVFR to VFR CIGS once again. Haze will increase today and could lead to some minor vis reductions at times. && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore breeze can be expected through next week. A plume of Saharan dust that arrived yesterday will result in hazy skies this weekend. Low to medium (30-60%) rain chances return Tuesday and will linger through much of the next work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 79 94 80 / 0 10 0 0 Victoria 95 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 104 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 100 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 91 82 91 82 / 0 20 0 0 Cotulla 104 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 97 78 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 90 82 90 82 / 0 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...PH/83