480
FXUS64 KCRP 101121
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
521 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Key Messages:

- Freezing temperatures tonight for most of South Texas

- Any remaining wet roads could freeze overnight (low chance),
  please use caution if traveling tonight or early tomorrow morning

The remaining area of showers are continuing to move eastward early
this morning and should be completely offshore by sunrise, allowing
us to begin the drying process. With the rain ending early this
morning, it appears that there will be enough time for roads to dry
before freezing temperatures return tonight, however, there is still
a low chance that some spots could remain wet overnight which could
lead to some slick spots. Please use caution if driving late tonight
or early tomorrow morning. Looking at PWAT values from the GOES-16
satellite this morning, the atmosphere behind this area of showers
is significantly drier with PWAT ranging from 0.50-0.70". Drier air
will continue to filter into the region today in the wake of the
front with PWAT values dropping to 0.20-0.50" overnight tonight.

Northwest flow today and tonight will keep us chilly with highs
ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s and lows dropping below the
freezing mark region wide ranging from the mid 20s to the lower 30s.
In a nice change of pace tomorrow, southerly flow will return which
will finally allow our daytime highs to return to more seasonal
normals with highs ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Key Messages:

- Next cold front Sunday.

- Temperatures remain below normal, but above freezing through
  most of next week.

Temperatures will be slightly warmer Sunday ahead of the next cold
front with highs in the 60s under partly cloudy skies. A light south
wind early Sunday morning will shift to the north by late Sunday
morning or Sunday afternoon, but the drier and colder airmass is
expected to move through S TX Sunday night. This will maintain the
below normal temperatures through much of the upcoming week.
Freezing temperatures are not expected this upcoming week, but can
not rule out a few locations in the northern Brush Country to
briefly dip down to 32 Monday morning.

As for rain chances with the Sunday cold front, the best chance will
be over the gulf waters where deeper moisture is progged to reside.
There is a low (10-20%) chance along the coastline and up to the
Victoria Crossroads where sufficient moisture with PWATs around 0.8
inches is expected. Rain chances end Sunday night as the drier
airmass moves into S TX. Low (10-20%) rain chances return to the
southern portions of the CWA Tuesday night into Wednesday in
response to the 850-700mb flow shifting to a southerly direction and
ushering deeper moisture northward across the area. The deeper
moisture combined with a mid level short wave and isentropic upglide
will bring mainly stratiform rain.

Onshore flow is forecast to return by next Thursday leading to
warmer temperatures that are closer to normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

VFR conditions across most sites are expected to continue with the
expectation that VCT will join them soon. Winds will increase this
afternoon with gusts to 30 knots. Winds should begin to decrease
this evening shortly after sunset, becoming light and variable
overnight. As for rain, the area of showers has passed all sites
except for CRP and VCT, who could still see another hour or two of
light rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

A lingering area of showers will continue moving eastward this
morning impacting our local waters. This activity is expected to
continue moving eastward with rain free conditions expected after
noon. Strong northwest flow between 20-30 knots is expected to
continue today through this evening before beginning to gradually
decrease after midnight. Winds are forecast to drop to under 15
knots tomorrow morning and become light and variable tomorrow
afternoon. A weak to moderate onshore flow Saturday night is
expected to become north on Sunday as a cold front moves through
the area. Winds increase Sunday night to moderate to strong. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are possible Sunday night and become
more likely Monday in response to high pressure building into the
area. A moderate northeast flow is expected by Monday night and
continues through mid week. There is a medium to high (35-70%)
chance of rain Sunday ahead of the cold front, then ends from west
to east behind the cold front Sunday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    49  32  56  39 /  10   0   0   0
Victoria          48  28  57  35 /  10   0   0  10
Laredo            51  32  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             50  30  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          50  34  56  43 /  20   0   0  10
Cotulla           51  28  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        49  32  57  37 /  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       48  37  56  47 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Saturday for TXZ229>234-
     239>244-246-247.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     TXZ245-342>344-346-347.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ231-232-
     236-237.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ250-255-270-
     275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...JCP/84